Apple

It’s the time of the year where you can spend more money on a new iPhone! (At least on the iPhone Max, regular iPhone prices stay the same.) Apple just announced the iPhone 15. It feels like a new car commercial: “Same same, but better.” Every year, the improvements are marginal. It’s probably not enough to flip your iPhone 14 for a 15, but compared to let’s say the iPhone 7, there’s that “wow” effect.

The big notable news is Apple embracing the USB-C charger, after EU pressure. I’m not a big regulation guy, but this is a standard that should be adopted universally. How many charging cables do you need?!?! I don’t have horse in the fight (USB vs Lightning). I’m no pro-this cable or that. I’m pro charging. I just want to charge.

But the decision is a blow to Apple. They invested billions in R&D developing their proprietary charging cable, the lighting charger. The charger war is over. This is one of those decisions where the upside trumps the downside by multitudes. Let’s spend time and resources innovating other things.

By the way, it’s just charging. It shouldn’t be complicated. If you have one device and one cable, life is simple. But if you are like me, your phone, speaker, watch, tablet, kids’s stuff…then it becomes an IQ test for monkeys trying to charge stuff.

Imagine if you had to pump gas and each car brand had a different fuel filler inlet. Goddamn nightmare! There are things, certain standards or protocols, that universally we agreed that it should be the way. Like stop signs, traffic lights, air traffic control, seat belt mechanism, the height of a light switch, Internet protocols, most keyboards…it just makes everyone’s life easier and better.

Apple shares are down a bit lately but it’s still up 40% year-to-date. Part of the downslide is market sentiment turning negative. The other part is due to Apple becoming a new parn in the China-US rivalry. China is an important market for Apple. It represents about 20% of Apple’s revenues and income.

Still, even if Huawei and Samsung have superior phones, Apple has a much superior brand. It’s probably the #1 brand in the world. Young people want iPhones. They don’t want to be seen with an Android. The ecosystem is captive. You can’t go anywhere. You are lock-in. People are not trading down.

Intangible Assets, Apple & Valuation

Last week I wrote a piece on intangible assets. I made these points:

  • Modern accounting standards fail at recognizing intangible assets. Most intangibles are not recorded on the balance sheet, unless there’s an acquisition. If there’s an acquisition, intangible assets are recognized through a purchase price allocation process (PPA). A PPA process is not adequate at taking into account the economic value of certain intangibles.

  • As an investor, a failure to recognize the importance of intangible assets and the role they play in the modern economy will lead to missed opportunities. You might not identify or measure an intangible asset with precision, but you need to recognize how it drives value, even if it’s not on the balance sheet.

  • In the modern economy, intangible assets have become the most important factor in value creation. Look at the world’s biggest companies: Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, Netflix, Meta (Facebook). They are built on the back of intangibles.

  • Traditional valuation metrics are inadequate for technology-heavy companies. Most of the money spent on intangibles (e.g. R&D) is expensed on the income statement and never shows up on the balance sheet as an asset/investment. This has the effect of reducing earnings and an elevated PE multiple. You have to make adjustments to determine the true economic value of the company.

The day after my post, Barron’s published an article on Apple: Apple’s Expensive Valuation Seems Perplexing. These Factors Explain It.. I like the article because it points out exactly to what I was talking about. 

The article nails the flaws I just pointed out. I’m not going to rehash the article, but the gist of it is Apple trades at 29x next 12-month PE, the S&P is at 19x, implying a 50% premium for an almost $3 trillion company, suggesting a high valuation to the broader market.

I’m not going to get into whether a company approaching $3 trillion in market cap is cheap or expensive. What I want to point out is that by simply stating that “Apple trading at 29x PE is expensive” is the wrong approach. Taken at face value, it’s nuts to buy it at that price. But that’s the problem. You can’t take it at face value. Because under that approach you would have left a lot of money on the table. Over the last twenty years you would have never bought Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, or Facebook because it was always trading at a “high” PE.

As I mentioned in my previous post, when it comes to technology companies, you need to adjust the P/E metric. Let’s go back to Apple for example. You need to take into account the massive amount Apple spends on R&D. Last year Apple spent $28b in R&D. Despite being an investment that will generate future cash flow, it’s treated as an expensed and any assets created doesn’t show up on the balance sheet (e.g. their biggest asset, their brand valued at $482 billion, is not on the balance sheet). Because their intangible investments are expensed instead of being capitalized, the profit are lowered and the earning multiple looks inflated. That’s why you get out-whack PE ratios with technology companies.

There’s nothing wrong with the Price to Earnings approach. But when it comes to technology companies, where their intangible assets are the major value driver, you have to dig deeper and make adjustments. However, I do prefer cash flow valuation approach. Adjusting the R&D expenses to capital expenditures will impact the company’s capital structure, but it will not affect the cash flows. And cash flow is what matters.

I didn’t want to make this a long post. I just wanted to highlight the Barron’s article and how it was related to my previous post.

Cheers

Intangible Assets

‘Not everything that can be counted counts and not everything that counts can be counted’ – (attributed to Albert Einstein, a smart guy)

This post is on intangible assets. I want to touch on the importance and confusion surrounding intangible assets. The modern economy is built on the back of technology. Underlying that technology is intangible assets that are not properly reflected on financial statements. The balance sheet was reliable during the steel-making era, but it’s antiquated in today’s world of modern technology. As an investor, you need to recognize the value that intangible brings even though they can be hard to identify and quantify. But first, let me establish what we are talking about when it comes to assets, then I will touch on the accounting treatment, or mistreatment, of intangible assets.

All businesses have assets. An asset is a resource used to produce economic benefits. Assets can be tangible or intangible. You know what tangible assets are. These are your physical assets such as plants, machinery, equipment, and property. You can see it. You can touch it. Accounting standards have been developed to address tangible assets. Take a bunch of hard physical assets, put it on the balance sheet, and depreciate it over their useful life. Let’s say a machine is estimated to be good for ten years, then a non-cash “expense” is applied over ten years. So far so good.

Over time, especially since the rise of tech companies, intangible assets have increasingly dominated the resources a business employs. If you look at some of the world’s most valuable companies, such as Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Netflix, and Meta (formerly Facebook), they don’t have a lot of fixed assets compared to traditional brick-and-mortar companies. It’s their intangible assets that drive their value. This characteristic is primarily due to the nature of their business models, which rely heavily on technology, intellectual property, and human capital rather than good old physical assets. These companies don’t carry inventory or equipment.

Intangibles are the assets that you can’t see or touch. They are not physical assets. Hence the “in” in intangible. These are your brands, trademark, patent, goodwill, intellectual property, rights, client relationships, and reputation among other things. It could also be things like proprietary algorithms, data, or a special feature in an app like the “thumbs up” button. 

We know intangible assets have value because they produce goods and services that bring in money. There’s no denying that the logo of a bitten apple, or a golden arch, means serious business. Not sure? Without that golden arch, you don’t have Mcdonald’s, you have a restaurant serving bad food. Without that iconic red logo, you don’t have Coca-Cola, you have dirty brown water (Pepsi gets a pass, but who buys generic cola?). Without that super sophisticated search algorithm, you can Google things instead of going to the library (you should still go to the library).

Now that we have established that intangible assets are a real thing that makes money, and if it makes money it has value. What’s the accounting treatment of intangible assets? That’s where the confusion and complexity comes in. 

As I mentioned earlier, accounting norms were created for the brick-and-mortar companies, the ones with physical assets that you can easily identify and put on a balance sheet. With intangible assets, it’s not so easy. I don’t want to get into an accounting nerd fight but the accounting world was built with physical assets in mind. With intangibles, nothing is straightforward.

As a confusion starter, you have intangibles that are on the balance sheet and some that are not. Internally generated intangible assets, like a brand, are not on the balance sheet. Some of the biggest brands in the world, like Apple, have no brand value on their balance sheet. Interbrand, in their annual ranking of the World’s Most Valuable Brands, estimated that in 2022 Apple’s brand was worth $482 billion.  $482 billion! For something you can’t touch, for something that exists in our head (that is the love of Apple products).

Go look at Apple’s balance sheet in the 2022 10-K, there’s nothing about the brand. Apple has $352 billion in total assets and $120 billion of that are marketable securities (stock and bonds), their biggest listed asset. Even if you apply a 50% haircut to Interbrand’s number, the Apple brand dwarf all the other listed assets. The word “brand” came up three times in a word search of the entire 10-K and the results were insignificant (something about AppleCare, a co-branded credit card, and the Apple store).

We can debate what’s the exact value of the Apple brand, but we can’t deny that it’s a major asset that prints money. At the moment of writing this, Apple is approaching the $3 trillion market cap. From this number, we can imply that the market does not value Apple for the assets on the balance sheet, but for the growth and cash flow it generates, which is underpinned by its great brand. 

The problem is that traditional financial reporting is inadequate at quantifying the value of intangibles. Accounting principles state that the money spent to develop the brand, intellectual property, and R&D is expensed on the income statement in the selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) section, instead of showing up on the property, plant, and equipment (PP&E) section of the balance sheet. What the accounting standards are saying is that by expensing R&D immediately, there’s no value in the future. But we know that’s bunker. Some intangible spending is an investment that will generate cash flow in the future.

Part of the reason why such investments don’t show up as an asset on the balance sheet is that expenses are intertwined with each other. Intangible investments are blended with operating expenses. The line is blurry. How much marketing expenses are actually investments and what is a proper useful life for those assets? I welcome you to read the Intangibles and Earnings report by Michael J. Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, where such questions and more are explored.

However, if you acquire a company, the accounting rules change. During an acquisition, then the acquired intangibles show up on the balance sheet and are capitalized. To go back to Apple, let’s say Banana Inc. acquires them, then Banana Inc. would have to add the Apple brand to its balance sheet in a process called purchase price allocation (PPA).

Some acquired intangibles have a useful life. Some are infinite, like a trademark (as long as the business exists). If the intangible is on the balance sheet, there’s also the question of “How much is it worth?” There’s a little bit of financial gymnastic when it comes to valuing intangibles like a brand.

The confusion doesn’t stop at how you identify and value an intangible asset. What about amortization charges related to acquiring the intangible, do you add it back? Does the intangible asset need maintenance expenses? You need to be careful with the risk of double counting if future expenditure on maintaining the value of the intangible asset is expensed rather than capitalized.

Are you having fun yet? I warned you at the beginning. And haven’t got to goodwill, the Cadillac of intangibles. I’m not talking about the good kind of goodwill, which more of it is better. I’m talking about accounting goodwill, where more is not necessarily better. Goodwill arises from an acquisition. It arises when the PPA process runs out of assets to attribute the purchase price too, so they invented a line called goodwill. It’s a plug number for accountants to make sure things balance. Let’s say you buy a business for $1 million, and the only asset is a picture of me worth $1, then $999,999 is going to goodwill (the value of the picture is in the eye of the beholder). Hopefully, that value doesn’t get impaired.

There’s no straightforward answer on how to address the confusion. Experts don’t agree with each other and I don’t have a good answer myself. In their defense, an accountant would say that you can’t put an intangible asset like brand value on the balance sheet because it’s very volatile, and it’s true. Brand value jumps around a lot. How reliable is the balance sheet if your biggest asset jumps around 50%?

I think that in some cases intangibles should be treated like tangible assets, where you put them on the balance sheet and amortize it over its useful life. Some intangible amortization is a real expense and you should add back some of the charges. It should be addressed on a case-by-case basis. 

Next, I’ll address what’s in it for the investor.

The Intangible Assets Juggernauts

What do Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Netflix, Microsoft, Intel, Oracle, Tencent, Adobe, Uber, Airbnb, Alibaba, Shopify, and many more, have in common? They are some of the world’s most valuable technology companies. They invest massively in intellectual property, R&D, technology, and human capital. The “assets” that underpin the knowledge economy. And as I mentioned earlier, like in the Apple case, most of the assets don’t appear on the balance sheet.

These companies leverage their intellectual property, digital infrastructure, and network effects to create value and dominate their respective markets. However, it’s important to note that while fixed assets may not be as prominent, these companies still have substantial operational costs, including investments in R&D, marketing, and maintaining their digital infrastructure. These costs are huge and important to maintain their competitive position.

As an investor, you need to recognize how intangible assets can be crucial drivers of a company’s competitive advantage and future earnings potential. Even if you can’t quantify it. Understanding this concept helps explain the Amazon story. Understanding the Amazon story might help you find the next “Amazon” What’s the Amazon story?

Traditional value investors looked at Amazon and said “It’s overvalued because it has thin margins and no profit.” Amazon is worth over $1 trillion and made Jeff Bezos, the founder, one of the world’s wealthiest. For a company that started as an online book store, they must be doing something right. Amazon is a bit of a hybrid company, a combination of old and new worlds. It’s a tech company with a lot of tangible assets, like inventory, giant warehouses, and data centers.

The main reason for misunderstanding Amazon’s valuation is that the company reinvests all its money on R&D, which are operating expenses on the income statement. This has the effect of understating profit. And because profits are kept low, its Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio never made sense. As I’m writing this, Amazon has a P/E of 292x. It doesn’t make sense and it never did. But it proves my point. Amazon’s earnings are meaningless because the company is massively investing in growth. Those operating expenses are actually investments that generate future cash flow in the future. If you looked beyond the traditional valuation metric, you would have made a fortune. I didn’t. And now I’m writing.

The same goes for return on capital. With the current reporting standards, the return on capital is overstated if you have a bunch of non-listed intangibles because you understated the invested capital. Add the $482 billion of brand value to the assets of Apple, and your return on assets and equity drops.

When looking at companies with massive R&D expenses, you will have to make adjustments. You have to dig deeper. Regarding valuation, as I explained, valuing technology companies on book value or traditional metrics can be misleading and inadequate. Traditional Price-to-Book captures tangible assets. At the risk of repeating myself, the approach misses a lot of embedded value in an intangible asset since traditional accounting doesn’t capture it.

Unquantifiable

So far we have established that traditional accounting standards don’t capture the embedded value intangible assets bring and that traditional valuation metrics are inadequate for technology-heavy companies.

I want to take this conversation to another level. I don’t know if we will ever get to a point where we can accurately measure intangibles. That’s beside the point. I want to go beyond accounting. 

What I want to get to, is that there are intangibles that it’s impossible to put a number on them. For example, accounting standards don’t take people into consideration. Their value is zero. But people are an organization’s number one asset. What if you have a Michael Jordan, or a Steve Jobs on your team? They are not on the balance sheet. But that key person is the difference between massive success and average results. You have to go beyond the financial statements.

A smart man named Albert Einstein apparently said “Not everything that can be counted counts and not everything that counts can be counted.” How do you put a number on Trust? Integrity? Respect? Reliability? Loyalty? Desire? Culture? What about social networks and political connections? You can’t quantify it. But you don’t need to be a sophisticated investor to recognize its importance and how it drives long-term value creation. That’s the key.

The point of this post is not to debate how accountants should handle intangibles, but to recognize the importance of intangible assets and the role they play in the modern economy. They have become an important factor in value creation. You might not identify or measure an intangible asset with precision, but you need to recognize how it drives value, even if it’s not on the balance sheet. This means you might have to dig a little deeper. 

At the end of the day, you are trying to determine free cash flow to estimate value. With that in mind, just like a tangible asset, you need to make the necessary adjustments that give you an accurate estimate of value. As I said in the past, valuation is an art, not a science.

Further Readings

Berkshire Hathaway 2022 AGM

I’ve written about my trip to Omaha in the past so I won’t repeat myself. You can read about it here and here.

For the first time since 2019, Berkshire Hathaway had their AGM in person. You don’t just make the trip to Omaha to simply listen to Munger and Buffett. CNBC broadcast the meeting and you can catch it on Youtube.

So why go?

“It really feels good to get back and be doing this in person. It’s been three years. And it’s a lot better seeing actual shareholders, owners, partners… …I mean, for example, if we had a manager someplace that was 98, I might want to send somebody by occasionally to see whether he was cutting paper dolls or something. We probably do things that are a lot more foolish than cutting out paper dolls, but we’re having a lot of fun doing it. And we really have a lot of fun when you come visit us.”

–Warren Buffett, 4/30/2022

It’s good to go check on if the top two person in charge are still alive.

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger are mentors and role models. Not just in investments, but also on how to be live your life. They truly treat shareholders as partners. They have been extremely successful and have a lot to share. You try to learn from people like that.

Going to Omaha for the Berkshire Hathaway AGM feels a little bit like going to church or to a rock concert. You get hit with wisdom and when you leave you have an energetic buzz feel that you carry with you. You have to be there. If you have been, you know what I’m talking about. If you have never been, you need to go. It’s the difference between watching a rock concert live and on Youtube. It’s the same music, but two totally different experiences. When you mix the energy + the people + the ambiance you get a great experience. Listening to Buffett and Munger for a few hours leaves you more calibrated, a clearer mind, and feeling good.

The AGM is much more than another shareholder meeting. Anyone who has been would tell you that. An investing ecosystem has been built around the AGM. There are numerous events, panels, cocktails meetings, dinners etc…basically networking and learning. You try to soak in as much as you can.

The best was meeting old friends and making new ones. Omaha is the de facto place to meet like minded investors. It’s where everyone gathers. If you are a serious investor or want to learn more, it’s a good trip to make.

The vibe this year was great. It’s great every year. But this year was a little extra. I think it has to do with the fact that the AGM wasn’t in person for the last two year. So it was great to be there in person.

As for the takeaways, you can find comprehensive reports on the AGM with a quick search. Warren, at 91, remains super sharp. But he was a little slower in his answers this year. He has reminiscent of the past and rambling a bit. It’s just an observation. If I’m that sharp at 60 I’m taking a victory lap. Good meeting overall, here are some of the key points:

  • Berkshire bought $51 billion of stock in the first quarter. That includes a lot Chevron and Occidental Petroleum. When everyone is selling, they are buying.
  • Occidental Petroleum: They bought 14% in two weeks! Basically because of the gambling culture.
  • Charlie said that they preferred owning stocks than Treasuries as a reason for the massive purchases.
  • Charlie Munger calls criticism of Buffett as chair and CEO ‘ridiculous’. And it is.
  • BRK went from having $147b in cash to $100b. They are not hurting. Part of the problem with the high cash pile is the lack of investment opportunities over the years. But Q1 investments had to be the biggest investment in a while.
  • $148b in float, and growing.
  • BRK has been busy buying itself. Share repurchase of 10% over the last year and so. But buybacks slowed down in Q1-2022.
  • BRK is buying Alleghany Corp for $11.6b, poised to be Berkshire’s biggest acquisition in six years. Buffett told us the back story how the deal came together. It started when he got an email from the CEO asking him to read his letter.
  • Big arbitrage play on Activision-Blizzard. Owns about 9.5% of ATVI. Very confident that the transaction will close.
  • Buffett bought more Apple. Would have added more if the stock hasn’t rebounded.
  • I think I saw Ajit Jain sleep for at least a good 20 minutes.
  • Inflation swindles everyone. The best hedge is to invest in yourself. You want to increase your personal earning power. Businesses that doesn’t require a lot of capital might have an advantage.
  • Buffett & Munger ripped Bitcoin, Robinhood and the casino culture of the stock market.
  • There were new stories I think haven’t been told before. Like when he went to Vegas and the “$170m floating “plug” in the books” when he was at Salomon. Thank god they didn’t rehash the See’s Candies story.
  • See Candie’s broke their record for sales at the convention center. I think they sold over 15 tons of candies.
  • Like always they took a couple shots at the usual suspects: Fund managers, consultants, index fund managers that are activist investors, investment bankers, politicians, Wall Street, Bitcoin, GAAP rules.
  • Notable:  Tim Cook was checking on his biggest investor, Bill Gates, Jamie Dimon was around “visiting bank branches”, Bill Murray, Glenn Close, Dan Gilbert, Bobby Kotick also checking on his biggest investor, Mario Gabelli and Bill Ackman.

What’s Next For Apple and Tim Cook

The Original Apple Logo. That’s Isaac Newton.

Tim Cook has juste celebrated his 10 year tenure at the helm of Apple. Under his reign Apple’s market cap went from $350 billion to $2.4 trillion. No other CEO has created more absolute value for shareholders. Sales went from $108b to $274b in 2020. Net profit went from $26b to $57b.

Before him Apple was being run by co-founder Steve Jobs. Not the smallest shoes to fill. Do you remember what was being said back then? Steve Jobs was Apple. Steve Jobs was the guy behind the 2nd coming of Apple. Steve Jobs was behind some of the most iconic innovation in consumer electronics. Steve Jobs was one of the greatest business man ever. Steve Jobs was celebrated. Steve Jobs was bigger than life.

So who’s Tim Cook? The supply chain guy? Not exactly the profile you look for when trying to inspire employees to create “insanely great” products. The Apple fanboys weren’t thrilled and worried that the company was destined to decline.

After ten year, Tim Cook can look back with satisfaction. Tim Cook has created more value than Steve Jobs. The question now is who is worthy enough to replace Tim Cook when he’s done? Who can take a $2.4t company to the next level? I’m sure they are looking at the supply chain employee list.

Tim has maintained Apple’s record of innovation and its brand. He took Steve Job’s creation and made it better and bigger. This is definitely a business school case study. This is the greatest business transition of all time.

Under Tim Cook, Apple exploited four trends:

  1. Global supply chain – it has built an immense production network with China at the center.
  2. Chinese consumers – $60b in sales, 5x what it was ten years ago. China loves Apple and Apple loves China.
  3. Government were lax about tech giants with high market share – 60% revenue market share in America and a dominant position in OSs. Just look at the nice billions ($8b-$12b annually) it gets from Google in return for making it the iPhone’s search engine.
  4. Low taxes – Thanks in part to legal structure using tax havens, Apple’s tax rate was around 17%

However these four trends are becoming less favorable.

  1. Geopolitical tensions threaten global supply chains.
  2. China under President Xi Jinping is becoming more unpredictable. His policies makes it less attractive to rely on Chinese consumers for 19% of sales.
  3. Governments around the world are targeting big tech. Big tech are easy targets for regulators and politicians.
  4. The tax bill is going up. A deal brokered by the OECD may gradually forcer multinationals to pay more tax.

The next ten years won’t be easy for Apple and Tim Cook. What’s the plan? Apple will continue to shift towards being a subscriber-based firm. It has over 1 billion users who enjoy an array of services (21% of sales). They have one of the most beloved brands. In a toxic digital world, people can trust Apple. Apple is still about beautiful designs and high-quality manufacturing. They will continue to advance and push innovation. The iPhone 13 looks promising (50x faster than the iPhone 4, first iPhone under Cook). They are also pushing deeper into health, news, entertainment, music, gaming and services. And it will continue to try to invent a new generation of hardware. The rumor of a iCar or iGlasses pops up from time to time. Apple is looking into pushing deeper into search.

Apple is also shifting part of their supply chain to America. Long-term assets have risen to 70%, from 38% when Cook started as CEO. I’m sure he’s looking at plans to pivot away from China in case things go sideway. But I think the company has navigated its relationship with China well so far. China is a large market for its product and services, but also Apple creates significant employment in China.

Tim Cook was a big believer in the App Store (Job was ambivalent). Cook understood the importance of network effects. He understood the economic mechanism in digital markets which makes big businesses even bigger. Cook pushed hard on the digital “flywheel”: the App Store attracts more app makers, which attracts more users, which attracts more developers and so on. Today there’s nearly 2m apps, which facilitate $643b in billings. Apple takes a big bite of that.

iPhone 13

A short comment on the new iPhone 13. Every announcement is predictable. There’s no surprises. Every iPhone announced isn’t a huge step up from the previous one. But little incremental improvements, consistently, for a long time is a recipe for success. A faster processor, a better camera, a better battery, higher memory capacity, and more expensive.

I’ve no clue how many they will sell, but I’m sure it will be a lot. There’s a fight among analysts that are trying nail exactly how many people will buy and upgrade their phones. There’s over 50 analysts covering Apple and many more on Seeking Alpha. I don’t have a particular insights. People are looking at wait time on the Apple website for demand signal, or supply constraint. I’m not that guy. All I can say is I’m invested in Apple for more than just a phone cycle and that has worked well.

Summary

There’s no doubt that the next ten years will be tougher than the first ten. How do you keep growing? How do you keep these fat 40% gross margins? The App Store commission are trending downward.

But who would have though that Apple would have been a $2.4t company ten years under Cook? Even $1 trillion was a massive milestone. The Apple today is a better version of the pre-Cook Apple. Tim Cook is likely to stick around until 2025 when his current stock grant fully vest (but I doubt it’s about the money).

Disclosure: Long AAPL

The Way to $1 Trillion

Yesterday Apple announced new iPhone models that will be bigger, will be better, faster, stronger, and—of course—more expensive. Over the summer Apple (AAPL) passed the $1 trillion in market cap value milestone. Amazon (AMZN) followed not too long after. Today one share of Apple cost $224, up 32% just in 2018.

If there’s one stock that analysts couldn’t get right, it’s Apple. Not because they are not smart. It’s the opposite, most analysts are very brilliant. The problem is that analysts are stuck playing the short-term quarter to quarter game of guessing how many iPhones Apple will sell. Apple has over 100 analysts following the company. At this moment last year, when the iPhone X was announced, analysts were saying the cost of the iPhone was too high and sales would slow down, and the stock would fall. Following Q2-2018 results, analysts changed their tune when Apple blew  the estimates out of the water. Analysts are now saying that because the iPhone X was selling so well it would eat into future revenues.  Analysts insights are interesting, but if you are a retail investor, I suggest to do your own homework and invest with a long-term horizon. And ignore the short-term noise.

How did we get to $1 trillion? The Ringer made this interesting 7 min long video.

A year and a half ago I wrote this article on Seeking Alpha. Apple was trading at $106 a share. Apple was a 205-bagger from 1990 to March 2016, without calculating dividends. But it wasn’t an easy ride. You needed an 80% loss twice in order to get it and the large majority of the gains came after the iPhone was released in 2007. This is not your classic buy and hold fairy tale. Below are a couple tables and charts that display Apple’s rocky ride to $1 trillion.

The first table summarized Apple’s stock price since the IPO in the early 80s. It wasn’t necessary a good time to buy and Apple was on survival mode for over the next decade. The stock hover around $0.50 to $2 for the large part of its existence.

Apple chart 2

This second chart shows that the multi-bagger gains came after 2007, when the iPhone was released.

Apple chart 1

Below is a 10-year chart of Apple financials. Look at the revenue growth, going from $37 billion to $229 billion at the end of fiscal 2017. And it is still growing….

Apple financials

California

Here’s my missive on my recent trip to California. Because of its large size, I decided to break down in different posts.

I spent two days in Los Angeles to attend Charlie Munger’s Daily Journal meeting and various related investment events. Then I headed to the San Francisco-Silicon Valley area to have a better understanding of what’s going on in that special part of the world. Here are the posts:

As always, your feedback is welcome,

Brian Langis

San Francisco Bay Area – Silicon Valley

Perhaps the strongest thread that runs through the Valley’s past and present is the drive to “play” with novel technology, which, when bolstered by an advanced engineering degree and channeled by astute management, has done much to create the industrial powerhouse we see in the Valley today.

— Timothy J. Sturgeon

I didn’t have official business in the San Francisco Bay area but I wanted to go see for myself what is going on in this part of the world. There’s something truly unique going on there. I had to go. Some of the companies that have a major influence on our life are all located in the area. Silicon Valley, the nickname for the region, is populated with the Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Intel of the world. Even traditional brick and mortar businesses like Walmart have a presence with a tech lab. I don’t think we realize how much these companies have penetrated our daily lives. We use their products all the time. We use our iPhone to go on Facebook or Youtube. Google Maps to get around. On a flight, Netflix and the iPad are great at averting a kid crisis. Our methods of communication, work, and the way we get our entertainment are all in the hands of a couple companies. And is it a coincidence that they are all located in the same area? How did that happened?

Silicon Valley
Silicon Valley, California. Credit: Credit: Samykolon/Wikimedia Commons

Silicon Valley is a unique place. It’s a place of dreamers. The belief is that if you can think it, you can code it. And if you can code it, you can make products that will improve our lives. Silicon Valley has the ability of attracting the smartest brains. The region has everything to gets things done. Money is not an issue with its legions of venture capital funds looking to fund the next big revolutionary idea. Some of the best schools in the world, Berkeley and Stanford, are located there. It attracts and retains some of the smartest people in the world. Silicon Valley has created this virtuous circle of attracting money and brains that build companies that improve our lives. Continue reading “San Francisco Bay Area – Silicon Valley”

Apple’s Spaceship

Flawless curves, milled aluminum, endless glass, walled garden, it sounds like an Apple product. I had a chance to visit Apple’s new $5 billion “spaceship” headquarter.  Visiting is a strong word. I was allowed to look at it from the across the street. The spaceship is not open to the public. It’s not open to must Apple employees. Only Apple employees that have been transferred are allowed in. I’ve been told that 200 employees a week are making the transfer. The spaceship is expected to hold ~13,000 employees.

Apple spaceship
The Apple Park seen under construction in Cupertino, California in this aerial photo taken on Jan 13, 2017. Photo: Reuters

The centerpiece of Apple Inc.’s new headquarters is a massive, ring-shaped office overflowing with panes of glass, a testament to the company’s famed design-obsessed aesthetic. Apple’s latest campus has been lauded as an architectural marvel. The achievement is to make a building where so many people can connect and collaborate and walk and talk. A “statement of openness, of free movement” as Apple states it. The building, crafted by famed architect Norman Foster, immortalized a vision that Apple co-founder Steve Jobs had years earlier. My Apple “guide”, a guy named Joe, told me that the building is more than 90% Steve Jobs’ vision. The concepts and design were in place way before he passed away. He hated the current headquarter (the one on Infinite Loop) but that’s all Apple could afford at the time. Today Apple’s balance sheet situation has since improved enough for them to afford a fleet of spaceships if they wanted to. Continue reading “Apple’s Spaceship”

My Blackberry Is Not Working!

Video from 2010, still very funny. Includes Apple and Xbox jokes.