I try to unplug from politics time to time because it’s so toxic. It’s absolute garbage. Too much of it and your brain goes to shit. Feels like irreversible brain damage. But unfortunately in my line of work it’s hard to ignore when you have to know what’s going on. And…I’ve to admit that the entertainment and dramatic value of American politics is on another level (which is not exactly a good thing).
Tough month ahead. Republicans are asking for major concessions as part of any deal to keep the government running, including steeper budget cuts and changes to border and defense policy. And there’s the Kevin McCarthy’s impeachment push. And…are they connected? Sounds like the move is also inextricably tied to McCarthy’s struggle to avoid a government shutdown, keeping the crazies in line, and keeping his job as speaker of the House. And making sure none of this backfires on the Republicans. There’s a lot to juggle here.
Biden
We heard of the Hunter Biden’s mess. Did he go anything illegal? That’s for the justice system to figure out. Aside his drug/gun/tax/personal issues, using his dad’s name for “business” is looks like an ethical issue. But Hunter is a pawn. The real target is his dad, Mr. President.
The key question is: Did President Biden commit high crimes or misdemeanors (did Joe Biden benefit from his son’s business dealings)? Republicans and the FBI have been investigating for months and have yet to unearth any concrete evidence of misconduct by Mr. Biden. They are still looking for the “smoking gun”. So far the House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer said that Hunter Biden “sold” his father as a “brand” to “reap millions from oligarchs”. The Washington Post provided an analysis of the evidence. Then former Vice-President Biden would go out for dinner with people, like oligarchs, who gave his son money or was put on speaker phone with potential business associates. It smells bad, but it doesn’t mean he is guilty. So far the committee has failed to identify any specific payments made to President Biden or provided evidence that he benefited from them directly. Again, they are still fishing for that smoking gun.
Hunter will have to deal with his legal mess. As for President Biden, so far it seems the impeachment inquiry lacks substance and is more of a political card. In the Washington Post this weekend GOP congressman Ken Buck denounces Biden impeachment inquiry. Buck is no lightweight in the Republican party. He’s a member of the hardline House Freedom Caucus. He’s a conservative, pure and hard.
The claim that then-VP Biden pushed out Ukrainian prosecutor Viktor Shokin has been debunked. Shokin was not “prosecuting” the company where Hunter Biden sat on the board of Burisma making $1 million a year. Shokin was corrupt; the US and its allies had made a coordinated effort to oust him. Was Burisma corrupted? Probably, like everything in Ukraine at that time.
Shutdown
As for the government shutdown, it would be great if the US could get their fiscal house in order. Republicans are playing hardball and the fiscal conservatism card. Unfortunately they are not credible. Where was the Republican hardline on spending when Trump was in power (added $8b+ trillion to the debt in 4 years), or Bush? Did the Tea Party magically disappear? Every time a Democrat is in the White House Republicans rediscover their faux fiscal conservatism. Deficit hawks? Did you see any drama around the debt ceiling under Trump? They raised the limit three times. But when a Democrat is in power? “Let’s take the credit card away.” I’m not saying Democrats are fiscally responsible. They are not. But they never pretended to be either.
At the moment of this writing, there’s mixed news. Apparently there was a short-term bill to keep the government open but it was shut-down (a little bit of a play on word here). Some Republicans celebrated the bill but it wasn’t passed? If the House GOP can’t pass the bill, one House Republican said McCarthy “may be forced to choose between staying on as speaker or avoiding a shutdown.”
As for politicians, I just can’t buy anything they say. Don’t listen to what they say. Look at their actions.
Sure American politics is dramatic and entertaining. But unfortunately it’s the people that pay the price of their incompetency.
I’ve been following the US midterms elections, mainly for entertainment purposes. US elections are over the top. Americans are the king of show business. They can take something as mundane as the temperature and make it entertaining. It probably shouldn’t be that way, but it’s entertaining. We just had an election in Quebec. It had to be the most boring election ever. We had a Federal election last year, that was a sleepy affair also. Maybe boring is good. You campaign for a month, then move on other things.
Also it’s been a week since people voted in the midterms and it’s still not done. Are they still counting votes? Anywhere else in the world you know the night off or the day after. Like I said, we had an election last month and I think we knew the winner by 8pm. Same in Brazil.
One big difference between our Canadian-Quebec politics and the US is the degree of polarization. Yes our domestic politics is getting more polarized, but nothing to the extent you see in the US. I think the one big difference I find here is that people don’t identify themselves with a political party. Sure some do, but most people just vote.
While in the US it’s common for people to say I’m a Republican or a Democrat, I don’t know anybody here walking around saying “I’m a New Democrat” (you might vote for the NDP but you don’t identify by that). Some might identify as a separatist, conservative, liberal, or green, but you have more than one option to vote for. Somebody with conservative views has two parties to choose from (Conservative and the People’s Party). Somebody that leans liberal has 3-4 parties to vote for (Liberals, NDP, Bloc, Green). As for myself, I’m more a la carte, I vote all over the place. As for my interest in American politics, it stems from me having lived there and investments.
DePolarization
The polarization of politics is toxic. Going extreme on anything is never good. It’s pretty much shooting poison in the system.
This whole “Left” vs “Right” is stupid. Everything that the Right says about the Left, they are right. Everything that the Left says about the Right, they are right too. They are correct about each other. The Left is right about Trump. Trump is right about the Left. They are right about pointing out each other’s craziness. There are crazies on both sides.
The “Left” hates the “Right” and the “Right” hates the “Left”. Everyone is in their silos. We don’t trust each other anymore. There’s no conversation. There’s no debate. There’s no exchange of ideas. People are just peddling nonsense.
I live in a democracy. The leader only sometimes reflects my values. My values are not the whole country. I’m a small part of this country. Alberta and Quebec will never share politics. Just like Alabama and California won’t. Forget cross-country politics, people don’t even share politics in the same household. Go ahead, try to convince your wife to vote a particular way. The point is if you live in a country where you love the leader everyday, he’s not doing his job. He’s not there to serve just you and to represent only your views. I only agree with a minority of the people normally. The leader needs to be a representative of people’s will. He’s serving the people, the whole country, from tree huggers to pipeline roughnecks.
Politics is the art of compromise. You have to give something up. Everybody does. It’s the only way it works. German leader Otto von Bismarck said, “Politics is the art of the possible.” So compromise seeks the “best possible” solution. It’s hard. It’s tough. You need civility and courage. The answer to the MAGA right shouldn’t be Woke left, and the answer to Woke left shouldn’t be the MAGA right. For democracy to work you have to talk to people you don’t agree with.
Democracy is messy. Changing the country is difficult. Change takes forever. It feels like nothing ever happens. It’s a grind. It’s slow. It’s unsatisfying. It’s ugly. It’s difficult. It’s boring. It’s bureaucratic. But it’s better than the other systems out there. Just ask countries that don’t have it. They want what we have.
Here’s a few suggestions to depolarize politics:
– The art of compromise. You have to give something up.
– Need to take money out of politics. Take corporations out of politics. Take super pac out of politics. That way politicians answer to their citizens, not the donors or whoever finance their campaign.
– Need to stop identifying with a political party. Don’t outsource your thinking. That’s tribalism. Think for yourself. Plus every party has a stupid side, why would you want to identify with that?
– Stop reading news just from sources that tell you what you want to hear. Because that makes you retarded. It keeps you in your world. A small shrinking world. Instead of learning and growing you are becoming retarded. Read different stuff. Learn. Talk to different people. Ask questions. Don’t outsource your thinking to a political party.
– Stop talking about politics. There’s other stuff to talk about.
Midterms Review
Everybody is pointing to the Republican’s bad performance. But I think the Democrats sucked even more.
The media likes to highlight the crazies running, like Herschel Walker running for a Senate seat. There’s now a runoff election in Georgia and he has a good chance of winning. Walker has repeathly proven himself to be stupid. Herschel Walker is “observantly stupid” as Dave Chapelle said. But that’s beside the point. Herschel Walker’s voters aren’t necessarily stupid. That’s too easy. They are not voting for Walker, they are voting against the Democrats. Just like it’s a mistake to think that every Trump voter likes the guy.
My question is; What does that say about the Democrats? What does that say about the Democrats policies that a joke candidate like Hershel Walker gets 50% of the vote in Georgia? That’s the Democrats’ failure. When a guy like Hershel Walker says certifiable crazy stuff all the time, how can you not get 90% of the vote? That failure is on the Democrats. Who cares about Herschel Walker? It’s not about him at this point. At this point just put anybody up against the Democrats, because it clearly doesn’t matter.
I’m well aware that I’m harsh on Herschel Walker the politician. But Herschel Walker the athlete? I would pick him on my fantasy team any day. Walker is a former superstar running back, Heisman Trophy winner, Olympian, and UFC fighter. He’s a phenomenal freak athlete. But Herschel the politician? No. Fantasy sports. Yes. He’s just in the wrong lane right now.
Instead of reaching out to voters, Democrats have been pushing them out. They shit on Republican voters. They shit on people that voted for Trump. The “basket of deplorables.” They look down on Republican voters. Democrats are condescendant with “this country would be perfect if the stupid people would stop acting so stupid” attitude or “Republicans voters are stupid”. And they can’t stop doing it. And it’s the stupidest thing you can do. You are making half the country hate you. What you are doing is assigning people to the other side. You tell a certain group that you belong to Trump. You push people away. You give him votes. You are turning half the country against you. If you trash somebody, or ridicule them, how are you going to lead? What you have is half the country digging their heels and it’s hard to ever get them back. Why would you piss off half the country? You need to reach out. And this goes for both parties.
The Democrats need to address that crazy left wing, the Woke side. I know I’m bashing the Democrats, but the same arguments can be made about the Republicans. When was the last time the Republicans put forward a policy that was appealing? I don’t even know what the Republican party stands for anymore. There’s no real conservative running. It’s just a shit show.
I always said you get the politicians you deserve. Trump is the result of where we are politically. He’s not the cause. He’s the result of the Left being totally crazy in certain places, so out of touch with the general population. It’s so unattractive that you are pushing people away. If you tell people that men can get pregnant and give birth, and that you will get canceled for not endorsing that, I can see why people would look at a guy like Trump. You have to understand why they voted for him. And it’s not because they are stupid. Trump was the only candidate to ever reach out to them. A large segment of the population feels disaffected, that the rest of the country left them behind, and Trump spoke to them. Even though Trump is full of shit, and they know it, Trump became their guy, because he made them feel important.
I mention all of this here to make the point, if it needs making, is that you need to reach out. You need to speak to people with different views. As a politician you are supposed to convince people to come to your side. Not shit on them. You are supposed to say “I’m like you and you are like me more than you understand”. We might not agree on everything or have the same values, but we have the same concerns (economy, education, healthcare, security etc…) We can work together to make this country better. The way out of this mess is compromise. Both sides need to give up something. We need to come together.
Putin took a gamble and lost. The bet: Ukraine would fall once Russia invaded. They would meet scant resistance. It was supposed to be so easy that Russian soldiers brought their victory parade uniform. What fueled that thinking was that Russia had a secret network of pro-Russian agents that infiltrated the Ukrainian state at different levels. Putin believed that, aided by these agents, Russia would require only a small military force and a few days to force Ukraine to capitulate. But the agents overstated their influence. The problem in a dictatorship is you always say what the leadership wants to hear because otherwise you won’t get paid, or you will be out of the job. And with bad intel comes bad decisions. We know the rest of the story. Zelenskiy did not capitulate. Zelenskiy said something that will go down in history as one of the most gangster things ever said by a leader. Once offered by the US to get out of Dodge, Zelenskiy reportedly said “I need ammunition, not a ride.”
If Putin would have won his bet, the ultimate payoff would have been the revival of the USSR. A victory would have fuel that idea that Putin is the only one who can restore the greatness of Russia. We would have a very different conversation today. An easy victory would have made Putin overconfident, pump up his ego, the approval of the Russian people, and the smaller countries in Russia’s orbit would have followed like fallen dominoes. What are you going to do? Take on a nuclear power over Moldova? The thinking was the US lost its way and Europe is too dependent on Russia’s gas to do anything. Nobody has the stomach for a fight. I can’t blame Putin for thinking that. That’s what everybody thoughted. But the Ukrainian’s will to fight for their land and sovereignty convinced everybody otherwise.
Quick detour: Food for thoughts, let’s say, theoretically speaking, that everything Putin said about Ukraine was true, that Ukraine was a country full of Nazis on drugs that needed to be eliminated, don’t you think he would have support of the the whole planet? He wouldn’t have to do any convincing. Israel would have been the first to invade. Anyway…
Putin lost the gamble. Instead of being the next Peter the Great, he’s looking more like Nicholas II. He was the last Czar of the Romanov family. Long story short, it didn’t end well, and history is not too kind to Russian rulers that don’t deliver, and Putin is a historian.
Putin’s powerbase is fuel by the social contract he made with his people. Give me power and in exchange I will stabilize the country. That contract is now broken. He destabilized Russia. The economy is taking a hit, the war in Ukraine is not going well, the losses are heavy, Russia is losing young people, mothers are losing their sons, and his mobilization is a total mess. Some reports estimate 75,000 to 80,000 dead Russian soldiers. That’s a lot of grieving parents. For what? The future looks bleak. They have taken young men off factories and farms. Many talented people left the country. Inflation will hit Russia hard. Instead of turning Ukraine into a failed state, it’s Russian that’s turning into one.
Putin totally discredited himself in the eyes of his own people when he said that his “special military operation” was going to plan to then call for a mobilization. Because now the war hit home. Putin now finds himself in a protracted, full-scale war, fighting for every inch of territory at huge cost. Putin is not making any gains in Ukraine and domestic dissent to Putin is growing more vocal by the day. I’m pretty sure the Russian elite, its bureaucrats, the establishment and inner circle are thinking about life after Putin.
Putin lost the gamble and he’s trying to cut his losses. Putin is probably trying to hold on to as much occupied territory as possible to turn it into a Russian state. My guess is that he’s looking for a way to bring the big power (USA+NATO+Europe) to the table to negotiate some kind of deal. Putin needs to save face. The threat of nuclear weapons will bring the powers to the table, like they did in 1963 during the Cuban Missile crisis. Unless Putin is removed from power, his only leverage is edging closer to brink. I hope it doesn’t get to that, but he doesn’t have a lot of cards left to play.
Putin can’t pull out of Ukraine. Doing so will shatter is strong leader image. It would make him look so weak a home. A defeat might well lead to the collapse of the Putin regime. Remember Putin built his brand around being a source of stability and strength. So he can’t get out and he can’t win. And Ukraine said they want all their land back. My guess the best option for Putin is statis, a long gradual losing war of attrition.
If Russian soldiers keep dying, with the failure of the war, with the economy is disarray, with the sense of failure and imminent disaster everywhere, Russia will be on the verge of total collapse of morale. You need one major regiment to mutiny and other regiments will follow. Why not? The troops in Ukraine are poorly motivated, poorly trained and undersupplied, and their officers had no reason to be loyal to the regime. The biggest threat to Putin is not the West or Ukraine. It’s inside Russia.
The Iran protest continues across the country. The unrest was sparked by the death of 22 year old Mahsa Amini in the custody of the country’s morality police. Her crime: Strands of hair showing because of a loose hijab. That was enough for the country’s morality police to beat her to death. Her death quickly grabbed the world’s attention.
The more the Islamic Republic tries to suppress the protests, the more they pop up. It’s like a bad game of Whac-a-Mole. Each time you kill a protestor, they multiply. Iran is blaming the White House and the Zionist regime for the protests. I’m not sure anyone is buying that. Iran has enough problems on its own that it doesn’t need outside influence to destabilize it.
The protests first focused on the strict Islamic dress code for women but quickly grew into calls for the downfall of Iran’s theocracy itself. As I’m writing this, it’s the 50th day since her death and protests are not slowing down. What is unique about today’s protests is that they have united nearly every section of society. Normally the regime stages counter-demonstration. This time, it’s not happening.
Protesting in Iran requires courage. The protestors, the majority women, face getting arrested, shot, and tortured. According to Reuters, they estimate 356 people die protesting. It’s fascinating what they are doing. They risk death for a cause that’s greater than them.
Source: Mahsa Amini Family
Mahsa Amini is not the first woman to die at the hands of the morality police. But her death lit a spark. (Just like George Floyd wasn’t the first black man to get killed by the cops, for some reason, most likely the graphic video, led to unrest and demand for change and justice.) In 2003, Zahra Kazemi was an Iranian-Canadian photographer that died after being tortured by Iranian authorities. I remember how it was a big deal and relations between Canada and Iran deteriorated afterward.
We have seen episodes of protests in Iran in the past, notably in 2009 (rigged election) and 2019 (high gas prices), and shooting protestors put an end to them. But this feels different. This is one of the most important events in Iran in more than four decades and suggests this could be a turning point for the country’s future. The protests have become one of the most serious threats to Iran’s ruling clerics since the 1979 Islamic Revolution (which was also corrupt and brutal).
The protestors are not demanding more welfare or the loosening of some regulation. No, they want an end to the regime. The demands are very clear. They are chanting “Death to the dictator”.
Iranians involving every ethnic group, led by women, are fed up. This is not about a hijab or a faith. It’s about basic human rights, women’s rights. It’s about accountability, it’s about freedom. The current theocracy doesn’t represent the Iranians. They want a better future. Iran’s economy is in the tank. Inflation is making everyone poor. It doesn’t help that they are spending vast fortune waging proxy wars or trying to get nukes, when bread is unaffordable. Their allies are North Korea, Russia, and China (the point is you can have better friends or at least less enemies). They are cut off from the world. They want a better world. They want a better future. And the students look at the current regime, and they see the 83 year old sick and out of touch Ali Khamenei.
It is impossible to tell if or when a spark sets the system on fire. But for Iran, it’s been boiling for a long time. You could sense it. I always wondered how regimes that are so out of touch, so inefficient, and just terrible, can last for so long. I guess you have to be brutal. But that will turn on you eventually because you are planting the seeds of your own destruction. It took a long time for the system in Iran to come to this boiling point, but suddenly it has.
I know in Canada and in Western Democracies we complain a lot about our politics and government. I do it all the time.” It sucks. It’s slow. They are wasteful. Why can’t they get anything done? It doesn’t work blah blah etc…” But a quick look at other countries and it quickly humbles you. Suddenly what we have looks very attractive. What we have is what they want. I can complain about my crappy politicians. They can’t.
As for Iran, I’m terrible at making predictions, but I think this is the beginning of a revolution. If the students keep going, cracks will appear in the system. Business and the army will follow. The dictatorship will fall. The army will take over (they have business interest to protect). If they feel that the supreme leader is sinking, they have no incentive to go down with him. Iranians just want a normal country. If that happens, we should embrace it.
I’m no foreign policy expert. So the opinion below is just my 2 cent and is probably worth as much.
As I am writing this, the White House is taking every step possible to avoid a direct Biden-Putin encounter at G-20 (link). I’m not just talking about a scheduled meeting here. It means avoiding any contact like potential hallway run-in.
I’m not suggesting they should take a photo, smile, and shake hands. But when you are on the brink of a nuclear war, maybe a side chat wouldn’t hurt?
These are two nations with a lot of problems on the table. Russia is constantly reiterating the nuclear threat. Part of the problem, leading up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is the lack of communication between both countries. There’s a lot of misunderstanding that I feel could be solved by communicating. For example Russia says NATO expansion is a threat. Then US/NATO says countries voluntarily apply because they see Russia as a threat.
The main reason why they should talk is to bring the temperature down a couple of notches. Diffuse some of the tension. Do you really want to start a nuclear war because of a misunderstanding?.
What’s the point of the G20 meetings if you are not going to talk? Isn’t the value of these summits the meeting with leaders and figuring things out? Improving relations? Addressing problems? Finding common ground? Finding a way forward? Negotiate?
Meeting with rivals and enemies is not going to flip them into friends. The US and Russia are not going to see eye to eye on many things. The meeting might not solve anything. But if they can sit down and diffuse some of the tension, that’s progress and maybe out of that a way to move forward.
During the Cuban Missile Crisis, President Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev established a “hotline”. They communicated. The Russians had nuclear missiles in Cuba pointing at the US. The US had nuclear missiles in Turkey pointing at Russia. They came to an agreement that each side would remove their missiles. They remained enemies and the Cold War didn’t end. But at least I exist to write about it because they communicated.
We had a similar situation in the 80s. The Soviets were extremely paranoid at the time and the US under President Reagan was increasingly “assertive” of their military power. Relations between both nations were low and they didn’t communicate. The Soviets were convinced that the US would nuke them. The US thought that was insane. A misunderstanding almost sparked a nuclear war. We know that because the US/UK had a source deep inside the KGB that said that the Soviets seriously thought the US were prepping for a nuclear war and the US was like “really?” President Reagan, in March 1984, asked Arthur Hartman, his ambassador to the Soviet Union, “Do you think Soviet leaders really fear us, or is all the huffing and puffing just part of their propaganda?” Robert Gates, then the CIA’s deputy director for intelligence, said “we may have been at the brink of nuclear war and not even known it.” Because of that double agent, the US backed down from over-aggressive posturing. Soon after this near-crisis, Soviet Leader Andropov died and in 1985 Reagan met with Mikhail Gorbachev. There are many books and articles on the episode.
I’m sure a little communication would have helped with the nuclear war “misunderstanding”. During times of crisis, channels of communication are important. If the two rivals actually talked they would have a better feel of each other’s position. The same goes for China. I bet it’s even more complicated because of the massive cultural differences. It’s obvious that China isn’t too happy with the way things are going in Ukraine. The US can use that to drive a wedge between China and Russia. They should use communication to build something constructive.
I hear a lot of discussion around “What is the right response from the West if Putin does detonate some sort of nuclear weapon?” The right response is why does it have to get to that?
As for the nuclear threat, I think the chances are low that it will happen. But even if the chances are low, you have to take it very seriously. Putin using the nuclear threat is the worst thing he could have done. First the Russian people are not going to go down in flames with him. There’s no loyalty here. He will also lose the little support left he has from India and China.
When we are talking about the nuclear threat, we are not talking about what Putin is doing in Ukraine. Putin is using pure nuclear blackmail. There can’t be a compromise based on him not setting off a nuclear weapon if we hand over Ukraine.
I don’t have the solutions. But I’m confident that if the US and Russia start talking, we might avoid a nuclear war.
If Rocky IX was made today, he would be wearing an Ukrainian trunk.
There’s been six days of fighting and Russia has made a serious mistake. Russia severely underestimated the capability and fighting spirit of the brave Ukrainian people. The Ukrainians have the heart of a lion. This war is a heartbreaking study about what people will sacrifice in the name of their country.
Russia also didn’t expect the massive display of solidarity behind Ukraine. There’s a real coming together of the global community that we haven’t seen in decades.
Seven days ago felt like a different world. The world has turned on its axis. Since the invasion started there’s been a massive global paradigm shift:
We forgot about Covid. Two weeks ago I was watching people cry and protest over having to wear a mask. Now I’m watching husbands and fathers say goodbye to their loved ones, their children, not knowing if they will ever see them again.
Putin killed Swedish and Finland neutrality and German pacifism in a single weekend.
Russia has moved from a sullen, revisionist state to a clear and present danger to its neighbors, and has directly threatened countries beyond Ukraine.
Governments have no trust in or tolerance for the Putin regime. They tolerated Putin as a nuisance to live with. That’s over.
Switzerland announced they will join the EU sanctions against Russia. They are banning entry to five oligarchs close to Putin. Significant, considering Switzerland’s traditionally neutral stance.
The world’s major economies, save China, have combined to foment a financial crisis in Russia, casting aside the previous worries about systemic economic risk. That, in turn, may provoke domestic unrest with unknown implications.
The sanctions response has been global.
Economic and geopolitical implications stretch well beyond Europe.
The EU is providing weapons to a country at war. A first in its history.
Denmark becomes the first European country to let volunteers join foreign brigade in Ukraine.
Various multinationals are cutting ties to Russia. Shell and BP are dumping their Russian assets. BP is taking a $25 billion hit as it is offloading its 20% stake in Rosneft.
Germany is making a u-turn on nuclear energy. Germany mulls extending nuclear plants’ life.
The Russian central bank was hit with sanctions. Limiting the use of some of their foreignreserves.
The swift response from the global community is way beyond what Putin or anyone could have predicted. Yes, sanctions were being discussed. But practically destroying the Russian economy overnight? I didn’t see that coming.
Ukraine Identity
If there were any doubts about Ukrainian identity as a people, they are forging one now. War does that. Standing together in the trenches does that. Fighting and sacrificing for a cause that’s much bigger than you does that. They are fighting for their land, the people before them, their family, their values, for their children and their children’s children.
Despite being founded in 1867, it’s been said that being a Canadian wasn’t really a thing until the Battle of Vimy Ridge (1917), during the First World War, when strangers from across Canada with not much in common stood and fought together in France. A Canadian sense of pride was born in that battle.
For the Ukrainians, win or lose, they are forming an identity hammered out of fire. There’s not a single passport that can replace that.
But that sense of Ukrainian pride was not born last week. The seeds were planted a while ago.
In 1991 an overwhelming majority of 92% of voters approved the declaration of independence from the Soviet Union.
In 2004 there was the Orange Revolution.
Late 2013-Feb 2014, the Maidan Revolution followed by a civil war
If there’s a takeaway here, it’s that the Ukrainians will fight for what they believe in. What do they believe in now? Ukraine as a democratic sovereign country. How do I know it’s democratic? They elected a comedian that played piano with his private parts in front of a live audience as their President.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy – The Hero
Win or lose, he’s going down as a legend.
The President of Ukraine is a real leader. A President of the people. The world needs more of him and he has the world behind him. Can’t recall the last time I complimented a politician.
Watch this speech. Even with English subtitles, it’s hard not to be moved.
Zelensky decided to stay with his people and fight instead of being evacuated. His people and the world have rallied behind him.
It’s hard not to take a shot at Trudeau. The contrast with the Ukrainian leader is astounding. One is risking his life to fight and while the other disappears when a bunch of trucks roll up honking. Ukraine is lucky that Trudeau is not Ukrainian.
Vladimir Putin – The Beginning of the End
This is the beginning of the end for Putin. I believe his days are numbered. He wanted to play Czar (or is it Tsar?) and it’s leading to the collapse of Russia. He miscalculated and the Russian people are going to suffer. Because this is Putin’s war, he’s exposing himself to personal blame.
Russian history is not on his side.
In September 1915, with the Russian Empire losing World War 1, the hapless Tsar overruled his cabinet; demoted his cousin, sending him to Transcaucasia; and took supreme command. That suddenly, and rightly, exposed the Tsar to personal blame for Russian war performance, which worsened. In March 1917 a republican revolution deposed the Tsar, who abdicated, which did not save him or his family some time after a second, communist revolution in November. (Thanks to Brian Erskine for the info)
Putin looks like a one man ruler surrounded by “yes men”. The video captures it. It’s basically Putin destroying his spy chief on television for his failure to “speak directly”. The chief spy demeanor says everything. The whole thing is uncomfortable and terrifying.
Putin looks isolated and out of touch. What’s with these strange meetings where Putin sits at one end and the others seated far down the table. Putin is always a healthy twenty feet away from anybody. Is that paranoia or just playing it safe with Covid?
Putin meeting with his advisors. All the meetings are like that lately.
With much of the world moving against him, economic sanctions piling up and a military campaign less successful than he expected. He miscalculated the economic cost, the political cost, and the challenge of invading Ukraine.
Putin also enters a special club. He gets to join a small number of leaders to be hit by personal sanctions. That club includes Mr. al-Assad of Syria, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro. I wonder if these guys get their own special section at the U.N.
Miscalculation
By pilling up troops on the border and having a show of force, Putin was hoping to take Ukraine without firing a shot. But hoping is bad planning. This was a mistake. Kiev is not Kabul where the Taliban just rolled in. Putin underestimated the capability and fighting spirit of the brave Ukrainian people. I don’t know if Putin expected to be welcomed as a liberators meeting scant resistance from the Ukrainian, but he made a serious miscalculation.
It’s understandable. This happens all the time. The US has made the same mistake in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. These mistakes led to drawn out conflicts that depleted finance, resources, materiel and the most precious resource of all: lives.
Russia’s plan clearly is to reach Kyiv as quickly as possible and force Zelensky to surrender, including Ukrainian forces across the country. If Russia can’t take Kyiv quickly or if Zelensky refuses and resistance continues across Ukraine, Russia’s costs and problems multiply.
Putin wanted a weaker NATO, it will be stronger.
Putin wanted a weaker EU, he made it stronger.
Putin wanted to rebuild the Russian empire, it’s now weaker.
Miscalculation Part II
I think the West miscalculated too. With Afghanistan fresh in people’s minds, I think the West didn’t want another foreign policy disaster. The common narrative was that if Russia invaded, this would be a quick war, and Putin would force everyone to the negotiating table. This probably explains the lack of weapons and support provided to Ukraine. They didn’t want the equipment to fall into the enemy’s hand. The US looked ridiculous after the Afghanistan fiasco. They didn’t want a repeat, especially against Russia. Imagine the humiliation of videos of Russians parading around US military equipment.
Ukrainians rallied by Zelensky, have displayed unexpected resilience in their defense of the capital. They might not have the numbers, the military equipment, or the weapons but they do have more heart. After six days of fighting, the narrative is changing. Recognizing the will of the Ukrainian people to fight for their land, the US, the EU and NATO have been shoring up their support and providing weapons.
What For?
Hypothetically speaking, even if Putin conquers Ukraine, I don’t know how that works out for him. First he’s going to meet heavy resistance, insurgency/guerilla warfare. Second, the international community will never recognize the conquest.
So what will Putin achieve? He will temporarily own the regime in the Ukraine, something reversible since it’s not recognized by other countries. And he impoverished his population.
I don’t know how Putin wins. The more this drags on, the more the higher the cost to Putin. What do you tell the mothers of dead soldiers?
There won’t be peace with Putin in power. The world is done. One country can’t take on Putin because the cost is too high. Together Putin has no chance.
The US and allies need to approach Russia the same way the US approached Germany and Japan after WWII. Rebuild and invest in your former enemies to make them partners and better nations. The world benefited and still does today. Japan and Germany are strong allies.
Economic Fallout
When Putin came to power in 1998, Russia was at its lowest point. The country was falling apart. He rebuilt Russia. It’s far from perfect, but compared to where it was when he took over, it’s much better.
Then in four days he destroyed it.
He had a social contract with his people: Back me as your ruler and in exchange I will make your life better. Putin predicated his entire rule domestically on bringing ‘stability’ and ending ‘the chaos of the 90s’, and in the space of four days he’s managed to completely destroy the Russian economy. It’s insane. I’m still trying to wrap my head around that.
Here’s Putin legacy:
The Wiped Out of the Middle Class
What’s the difference between a Ruble and a Dollar? Answer: A Dollar. The value of the ruble against the US dollar is worth less than a cent (1 ruble = 0.0087 USD).
Most headlines are focusing on the oligarchs getting hit. But nobody expected sanctions that hard and that fast. The people that will suffer the most are the Russian middle class. They are about to get crushed. The ruble is falling like a rock. It took a 40% hit while I’m writing this. As the ruble is crashing, crippling hyperinflation could be on its way. I know that the Russian people have a great capacity to suffer. They understand sacrifice. But they didn’t ask for this, are pitchforks next?
1 USD = 105 rubble on XE.com. That’s the midmarket rate. I’ve seen some sites quoting 150 rubles for a U.S. dollar. I don’t know how accurate it is. But during a panic and people are rushing to convert their rubles, I wouldn’t be surprised.There’s a bunch of pictures showing Russians queuing outside banks waiting to withdraw their life savings. Will the bank system hold up? The Russians will need to print more rubles to fill the ATMs. That’s going to fuel further inflation. And then the currency crash is going to fuel further inflation. It’s a vicious circle.
The run on banks for rubles has led to a run on expensive high-end goods. Expecting their currency to be worthless, Russians have converted their cash into high quality hard goods. Maybe that will absorb the inflation shock.
Organic Sanctions
When the Moscow Stock Exchange crashed 70% on the first day of the war, combined with the collapse of the ruble, you don’t need sanctions to cause economic damage. The massive wealth destruction is emporishing the Russians.
This week the Russian stock market didn’t open. Russian ADRs fell 70%+. So much wealth has evaporated. Nobody wants to hold Russian assets. There’s a run on banks to get cash.
In a desperate attempt to stop the bleeding the Russian central bank is trying to save their currency by raising interest rates from 9.5% to 20%. That won’t do much. Nobody wants rubles.
Central Bank Asset Freeze
A very targeted and clean sanction says I cannot do business with you. The sanction that hurt the most is Western powers hitting the Russian central bank with sanctions. The US and other powers cut off Russia’s central bank from US dollar transactions. This will prevent Russia from accessing their “rainy day” fund that they were expecting to rely on for the invasion of Ukraine. The reserves were supposed to buffer the plummeting ruble. The $630 billion in reserves only matters if you can use it to defend his currency, specifically by selling those reserves in exchange for buying the ruble. Much of the reserves are deposited with foreign institutions in the form of euros, US dollars and government securities. Fortress Russia no more.
Since the country cannot access its forex reserves abroad, the government will have no choice but to seize all the deposits in order to get out of the situation.
Energy Non-Sanctions
Russia is the world’s second-largest exporter of oil and natural gas. Russia and Ukraine are also called the world’s breadbasket, as together they represent more than a quarter of the global wheat export and a significant slice of the world’s corn market. A commodity price spike would mean that we will likely have to pay more at the pump and for groceries.
Gazprom and Rosneft are not targeted by major Western sanctions, a sign of their importance in the global energy markets.
The message is clear. The world needs Russia’s energy and Russia needs the cash.
China – It’s Better to Stick with the Devil You Know
I don’t buy the Russia-China “friendship”. China and Russia have forged close ties in recent years, often aligning to oppose what they view as interference by the US and its allies. The two leaders met earlier this month and declared that friendship between their countries had “no limits”. No limits friendship? That status is about to be changed from “friends” to “it’s complicated”.
China and Russia might have common enemies, but they are not natural allies (Sino-Soviet border conflict). China has been quietly distancing themselves from Russia’s beleaguered economy. That “friendship” is more a transactional relationship. They are partners. China is a manufacturer and Russia has the resources. China needs the commodity and Russia needs the cash. And both countries can do business together without addressing human rights issues and ESG concerns.
China is rational about this. They don’t want to anchor themselves to a weaker power, especially one that’s sinking. Yes, China and the US have their differences. They don’t see eye to eye on many subjects. They are rivals. Their issues are not about to be solved anytime soon. But China needs the US and Europe. And China cares about one thing: China. So it’s better to stick with the devil you know best.
There are hint of China distancing itself from Russia. China state-owned enterprises restricted financing for purchases of Russian commodities. It’s a balancing act. China’s attempts to comply with US sanctions while continuing to support the Russian economy through the Chinese financial system (transactions in Yuan). China’s future is in engaging and competing with advanced countries, not with sinking Russia.
And with Russia in a tough spot, wouldn’t China take advantage of that to squeeze them out?
Nuclear
Putin invoked Russia’s deadly nuclear capability. He’s trying to take down the entire world order. It’s scary to think about.
For the moment we just need to relax. It’s postering.
Yes, Putin is crazy. Yes there’s been many “he can’t be doing this” moments. I don’t know what it’s in his head.
But I know he also wants to live.
Why Does It Matter?
Yes, Ukraine is far away. But sometimes your national security depends on the national security of your neighbor. Ask Poland, what happens once Ukraine falls? And the Russia shares a border with Canada at the North and the US with Alaska.
Ukraine has become the front line in a struggle, not just between democracies and autocracies but in a struggle for maintaining a rules-based system in which the things that countries want are not taken by force. We should be paying close attention to this.
The defense of Ukraine is not about oil. It’s not about money. It’s not about religion. It’s about right and wrong and those are the wars that we should fight. I’m not advocating for boots on the ground but there’s a lot we can do to help Ukraine. The whole world is behind Ukraine. If that’s not enough to win, I don’t know what does.
We need to stand up for what is right. Sitting back and watching what will transpire is not enough. I don’t want the Ukrainian and Russian people consumed by the devastation of war. This madness needs to be stopped. We needs to find a way to negotiate a peaceful agreement between Ukraine and Russia that also addresses both country’s concerns. We also need to support action that will rebuild their economy and infrastructure like we did with Germany and Japan after the Second World War.
The world and Russia can work together. It’s possible. The US and Russia stood side by side to defeat the Third Reich.
We need to focus on an agreement that brings peace and prosperity to the world. There’s a real coming together of the global community that we haven’t seen in decades. This gives me hope of a better, safer, more stable future.
Today feels like history is being made. When a day makes history, it’s usually never for a good reason. It’s official. Russia is invading Ukraine. A war that many considered unthinkable has begun. Conditions in Ukraine are rapidly deteriorating. It will reshape European security. This is a very concerning situation. How the international community responds is crucial. Ukraine cannot succeed alone against Russia. The U.S. and Europe must find ways to come to Ukraine’s defense.
Russia’s actions have brought the world to the brink of a new war on a scale we haven’t seen since WWII.
Russia was not threatened by NATO or Ukraine. NATO is a defense pact.
After years of wondering if NATO still had a purpose, it had found one now.
The invasion of a sovereign state is a war of choice. Conjured by Putin.
NATO and the West have failed to put forth a single, uniform position since the crisis began escalating.
The West’s inability and ineffectiveness works in Russia’s advantage.
Ukraine is not part of NATO. It’s intention to join NATO is written in its constitution but that won’t happen. On paper, NATO has no obligation to Ukraine. But it’s bigger than.
The conflict has planted the seeds to re-shape the world order. What it means for Europe. What it means for the rest of the world.
What if Putin succeeds in Ukraine?
We need to ask serious questions. Do we have a moral obligation to help weaker countries under attack from a dictator? Don’t we have a higher purpose to answer to? Do we just stand by and watch this?
If Western countries impose heavy economic sanctions, as they have promised, Russia may hit back in ways that further raise the temperature. An eye for an eye type of thing.
Biden has the domestic and international support to act against Russia. In a rare show of unity among Republicans and Democrats, Biden has broad support in Congress for tough action.
Expect a wave of Ukrainian refugees.
Also expect higher inflation.
It’s hard to have accurate news of the situation. The Russian propaganda machine is on full throttle.
By looking at Russian news, they are working hard at changing the narrative in their favor (they are the victim, acting in self-defense, they are protecting the people from Ukrainian genocide ethic Russians, the West wouldn’t engage in diplomacy, accusing the U.S. of crossing its “red line” by expanding NATO).
Putin doesn’t care about international law. Putin’s actions are based on some sort of concept of rebuilding the Soviet Union. In his eyes Ukraine is part of Russia.
The short-term goal is to “demilitarize” Ukraine, make it capitulate and replace it with a pro-Russia government.
Ukraine’s confidence in the West, which dragged it into the conflict and then abandoned it, is shaken.
Russia doesn’t care about sanctions. They are used to them and don’t fear them. They also took the last few years to sanction proof their economy.
It’s hard to measure the exact effect of the sanctions, even the most severe ones. The wild card is China. If nobody is allowed to buy natural gas, China will buy it. So there’s a market.
Russia has over $600 billion foreign reserves.They are built to take a hit.
Gaz: It’s still flowing into Europe. It has not been disrupted. But once they see the sanctions we can expect the energy situation to change.
Russia holds Europe by the balls because they are so dependent on Russian energy.
In normal times Russia supplies 30-40% of Europe’s gas. It’s higher in Germany. Although that share has fallen in recent months as Europe has increased LNG imports.
It’s mind-blogging how Germany bungle their energy security to be so dependent on Russia’s gas. Germany’s decision to phase out nuclear power is a historic strategic error. Even former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder sits on the board of Gazprom and Rosneft. Is it any surprise that he initially sought to exclude energy explicitly from any sanctions on Russia if it invaded Ukraine?
The pipelines between Germany and Russia started in the late 60s. The idea was that energy interdependence would produce peace. Instead it empowered Russia.
Energy: America and its allies need and can wean Europe off its dependence on energy imported from Russia.
High energy prices hurt Europe and help Russia. The higher the oil price, the more it helps Russia and makes them stronger.
High energy prices fund Russia’s foreign policy, including its armed forces. Energy is the foundation of Russia’s power.
Energy: It’s the long-term source of Putin’s power. Sanctions need to hit that. But that might come at a tremendous cost to Americans and Europeans.
Reducing reliance on Russian gas will require substantial investment and political will.
European gas currently trades at around $26 per MMBtu. The price of American gas is a little over $4.
Right now there’s no war between Russia and NATO. But NATO members and former Soviet republics like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are on high alert. I would also include non-NATO members like Finland, a former Russian possession.
Neutral Finland is arming up. They bought 64 U.S. F-35 jet fighters in December. They are close to NATO.
Russian absorption of Belarus, puts considerable Russian firepower on the border of Poland and Lithuania.
If a single NATO serviceman is killed, Article 5 is invoked. War against one member of NATO is a war against all NATO members.
NATO outmatch Russia in terms of forces and military equipment. But…Russia has a massive nuclear arsenal and has not ruled out using them. But I don’t think he wants to start a war with NATO.
Now the war has begun and it is no longer just about whether Russia will receive a guarantee from NATO anymore.
NATO will need to make clear to Russia that such moves to reinforce eastern Europe are not a prelude to NATO military intervention in Ukraine.
China: China is not 100% in Russia’s camp. Yes China has beef with the US. But I’m not sure China really wants this. I don’t think China wants to further deteriorate their relationship with the US and Europe. I also don’t think they want to anchor themselves to Russia, a weaker power.
China: Citing concerns over questions of territorial integrity has shied away from endorsing Putin’s invasion.
China: Sometimes it’s better to stay with the devil you know best.
Taiwan: This could be the first chess move in re-organizing the world order established after WWII. If the West (mostly the US) doesn’t do anything, what is stopping China from taking Taiwan?
Taiwan: The Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan tweeted that 9 Chinese fighter jets entered Taiwan airspace. I don’t want to read too much into this because China does this all the time, but considering the timing and the geopolitical situation, I wouldn’t discount anything.
90s History: In the 90s, under the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in return for security assurances. So much for that. Some 1,800 nuclear weapons returned to Russia.
This is the beginning. The beginning of a situation that could get very ugly. I’ve no clue on it will play out. We are talking about confronting a nuclear power with Putin at its head. But we do know that Ukraine cannot succeed alone against Russia. This is an opportunity for the world to forget about its little problems and come together for a greater cause.
This post is a brain dump. Here’s a few “hot” items on the menu:
Protesters
I share their frustration. I share their anger. Nobody is happy with what’s going on. Everyone is affected and tired. I get it. Trust me, I want my “normal” life back too.
But overthrowing the government that was elected four months ago and replacing it with a committee that includes a radical white supremacist group at the head table is not the solution (a point they reiterated this week). Ironically they are using democratic rights, like free speech and the right to protest, to try to remove a democratically elected government with a clear mandate 4 months ago.
We have a right to free speech. We have a right to protest. You have a voice. I’m your ally even if we don’t see eye to eye. Because your rights trump my opinion.
There’s a legitimate discussion to have regarding vaccine mandate for truckers and other measures. We can talk about that. We are looking for a solution to get out of this mess. We need a framework to return to normal. The problem is that protestors are looking for a simple solution to a complex problem.
The part where you lose me is when you use your right to cause chaos and ruin the lives of citizens and workers. Or wave confererate flags or nazi symbols. This does not help your cause. Big crowds always attract morons. The BLM and January 6 people found that out. This was no exception.
“Freedom” doesn’t entitle you to ruin other people’s lives. Your interests don’t supersede the others. Your rights are not above those of society. It’s not about liberty. It’s about them.
What you are doing is illegal. A 4-year old kid with cancer couldn’t get to his chemotherapy treatment because he couldn’t get to his appointment. Small shops, takeouts, restaurants and large stores can’t open. Brave people who work through the pandemic plus entrepreneurs trying to stay afloat are impacted. Ironic that protestors are willing to trash the income of others.You are turning the population against you.
Do you know how many people are occupying downtown Ottawa? 250. How many people voted in the last election four months ago? 17 million. Thank god we are not invaded.
Democracy
Democracy is messy. It’s not perfect. It’s frustrating. It’s slow. Nobody ever gets everything they want. You have to compromise. But I will take democracy over tyranny any day.
Here’s the thing with democracy. If you don’t like the decisions the leaders are making, you can vote them out. And politicians go to bed thinking about how they are going to stay in power and wake up thinking about how they are going to stay in power. And most of the time that means giving people what they want.
Truckers
I like truckers. They are an important part of our economic fabric. They move the stuff we need. It’s hard work that nobody wants to do. They are certainly underappreciated.
The issue is that we have protestors that have hijacked the trucker’s mouvement to push their seditious agenda. Protestors that are ruining other people’s freedom under the pretext of defending it. This is not helping the trucking industry or their conditions.
Trudeau
Politics 101 = the greater the crisis, the greater the opportunity.
Where is our leader? He doubled and tripled down on rhetoric, basically adding fuel to the fire.
It’s in times of crisis we get to see what people are made of. Trudeau clearly failed. Some Liberals have broken rank and criticized Trudeau, saying what a lot of people have been thinking. I know the protesters want Trudeau’s head but with the way things are going I think the real threat is inside the Liberal party. This guy is not a leader and I can see a scenario where the party wants to move away from him, like the Conservatives did with O’Toole.
There’s no clear solution to this crisis. I’m not saying to send in the army. There’s still room for a pacific solution. If there was one the truckers would have been one already. But Trudeau has the space to act like a leader. And he’s not. He should be trying to find solutions and he’s not.
And why do we hear more about the U.S. leaders regarding our domestic crisis?
Conservatives
If you think the Liberals mishandled the crisis, the Conservatives, thinking they had something to gain by supporting the protests, realized they were on the wrong side. What a 180 on their part. They made a serious miscalculation and are now telling protestors to go home. Well except for Pierre Poilievre (it’s because of guys like him the Conservative will never make traction and get elected). It’s not good for the future of this country, the democratic fabric of this country, and the image it projects internationally when you align yourself with a seditious mouvement.
They have realigned their guns. Now all parties and the Liberals now have a united voice on the issue.
As a side note, it’s a sad and confused time for Conservatives. They could be in power. The Liberals and Trudeau provide easy opposition. But yet they can’t get their act together.
Their association with the Freedom Convoy will deepen and intensify the rift on the political right. As such, it’ll repel many centrist Canadians, 90% of whom think vaccines are the best idea to stop people from dying and overwhelming hospitals.
Dictatorship
It’s actually painful and embarrassing to write. I deleted it. Then rewrote it. Then delete it. Then I wrote it again.
No, Canada is not a dictatorship. It’s insulting to people actually living under real dictatorship.
Still not sure? Go to China or Russia and try to have a convoy of 4 trucks together hooking for “freedom”. You will be scrubbing the floor in a Siberian gulag just thinking about it. In Kazakhstan the police have orders to shoot protesters on sight. If you want to protest inhumane conditions, the list is long.
Do you really think Trudeau is a dictator? Come on. He would be the world’s worst dictator. Dictators are mean, tough, and crush dissidents. Right now Trudeau is hiding.
Do you know who wins while we fight over stupid matters? They do! We look pathetic. We have free speech. A world without it is a tyranny.
Patriots
Camping downtown Ottawa doesn’t make you a patriot. Honking your truck doesn’t make you a patriot. Having a tantrum because you need to prove a vaccine doesn’t make you a patriot. Harassing volunteers trying to feed the homeless doesn’t make you a patriot. A patriot doesn’t block roads so a 4-year old with cancer can’t get treatment. A patriot doesn’t desecrate the National War Monument. A patriot doesn’t turned the statue of Terry Fox into an anti-vax, anti-medicine monument.
Here’s a real patriot:
Canadian Tomb of the Unknown Soldier
The people in the ground paid the ultimate price for freedom. The vaccine is a small cost for freedom. How ironic that their freedom to be in Ottawa protesting the government was paid for by the blood and death of that soldier & every other unknown soldier.
A real patriot stands up for what is right. A real patriot put their life on the line for a cause much bigger than himself. A real patriot respects the people that have fought and died for Canada. A real patriot doesn’t associate with Nazis waving swatikas. Real patriots fight them.
Generations of Canadians have fought and died for our rights, including free speech. Just keep that in mind before urinating on it.
Vaccine
Can you still get the virus? Yes. Can you still transmit it? Yes. But that’s not how vaccines work. It never did. The vaccine works. We have data. Good data. Who dies? The old and the unvaxx. Getting vaccinated means you don’t take a hospital bed. Hospital resources that should go to people that really need it.
You heard people saying that that covid is only a sore throat. Well that is the vaccine at work. My mom got it and thank god she’s vaccinated because she’s what you call vulnerable. She checks all the boxes. She’s triple vaxxed, got it, had a cough for a day, and didn’t clog up the health system. Thank you vaccine.
We should embrace the marvel of modern medicine and science. It’s amazing what we can do. The things that people would have wished for in the past. But nope, there’s a 10% that still cling to crystal therapy.
The thing you heard a lot last year from the vaccine skeptics is we don’t know what it does long term. They said millions would have died in the next year. Well it’s been over a year, I got three doses and I’m well enough to write this.
Restrictions
90% of the population is vaccinated. Yet, restrictions are imposed on 90% of the population because 10% don’t want to get vaccinated. And that’s frustrating because the unvaxxed 10% doesn’t care about restrictions and as a result the 90% is penalized.
The unvaxxed are the most vocal group about getting out of this mess but take actions further stay in this mess. If there’s anyone that should throw a fit, it’s the 90%.
It’s your right if you want to get vaccinated or not. Getting vaccinated is a small cost for liberty. But keep in mind that actions have consequences.
How Will This Play Out?
Allow me to speculate.
The problem Trudeau has is that he has a few, narrowly circumscribed bases of power that are enough to get elected but not enough to govern against the will of the people. Those are very different things.
So that leaves him with very serious limits on what he can accomplish in this situation. The truckers were smart to organize themselves locally and create many small spots of trouble. Similar to an insurgency. Local decentralized warfare that relies on local support. Basically the government is playing whack-a-mole.
The question is how long can the truckers last?
Conclusion
Are you tired of the pandemic? Yeah, me too. Everyone is. One dose, two doses, three doses. Remote learning, zoom, vaccine pass.Nobody likes this stuff. It’s stressful. But that pales in contrast to those who have had to lock up their restaurants and failed small businesses whose dreams and savings are now dashed. Or the 35,000 Canadians that died.
The path through this mess is 1) working together 2) through science and medicine. Not through playing soldier under the guise of ‘freedom’.
I feel that the threat of Russia invading Ukraine doesn’t get the attention it deserves. There’s headlines but the importance of the threat seems discounted. If a war breaks out tomorrow and we get dragged into it, most people would be surprised. This could get ugly really fast. If I was living in Europe right now, especially Eastern Europe like Ukraine or Poland, I would be freaking out.
I know, there’s a pandemic and I heard Kim Kardeshian has a new boyfriend. I’m kidding a little bit. Look I get it. Who has the time to be on the top of everything. It’s impossible. I’m at home, with two young kids, trying to be a teacher, a daycare, a dad, a husband, an IT technician, a cook, a cleaner, and there’s work to be done (update: kids are back at school this week).
This is serious. Ukraine is far away. The story is complicated. There’s history. There’s propaganda. Everybody is trying to spin the news in their favor. I’ve been reading mostly from Western sources. It’s possible that I’m being fed garbage. But I also looked at Russian news and it’s basically a PR tool for the government. If somebody has good independent sources feel free to share. The problem with this situation is that it’s hard to know what’s going on. Is it the truth or propaganda?
I’m in Canada. I’m lucky and grateful. It’s definitely not perfect. It’s easy to find things to complain about. But I traveled enough to recognize that we have it good. We have never been invaded, well not really if you include the War of 1812. Canada has been involved in military conflicts overseas but never once we felt a foreign power could invade us. So my views might not grasp the reality of what’s going on.
If you are from a country where there’s a constant threat of war, a history of war, where people have died and lost everything, it changes your psyche.
What’s Going On?
Russia has over 100,000 troops on the border of Ukraine. Russia has also moved troops south of Belarus.
The civil war that started in 2014 already claimed the lives of 13,000 people. That year Russia annexed Crimea, a region that the Soviet Union ceded to Ukraine in 1954. Russia says they have no intention of invading and that they are responding to West aggressiveness.
Background
We can go way back in time but I think there’s two key period that led to this mess. Pre-2014 and 2014 to now.
According to the prevailing wisdom in the West, the Ukraine crisis can be blamed almost entirely on Russian aggression. The US and its European allies share some of the responsibility for the crisis. At the center of the trouble is NATO enlargement, the central element of a larger strategy to move Ukraine out of Russia’s orbit and integrate it into the West. At the same time, the EU’s expansion eastward and the West’s backing of the pro-democracy movement in Ukraine. Basically the West had been moving into Russia’s backyard and threatening its core strategic interests.
At the end of cold war (1945-1989), Russian leaders wanted assurances that U.S. forces remain in Europe and NATO stays intact, an arrangement they thought would keep a reunited Germany pacified (can’t blame them, historically speaking an angry Germany is not good).
But Russia did not want NATO to grow any larger and assumed that Western diplomats understood their concerns. Secretary of State James Baker assured Gorbachev that NATO wouldn’t expand one inch to the east. But after a while I guess the West didn’t care. The first expansion phase took place in 1999 when Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland joined NATO. Russia agreed to the enlargement in exchange withdrawing huge numbers of troops from Europe.
But it didn’t stop there. In 2004 NATO brought Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
In 2008 President Bush supported admitting Ukraine and Georgia. Not everybody was on board fearing it would antagonize Russia. Long story short, Russia invaded Georgia. Putin had made his point.
NATO expansion continued marching forward, with Albania and Croatia becoming members in 2009. At the same time the EU was expanding east and promoting democracy. Ukraine joining Europe accelerates the demise of the ideology of Russian imperialism that Putin represents. Basically all these policies added fuel to the fire and Russia worried that they might be next.
Here’s the spark:
In 2014 protests led to an overthrow of the elected government for a pro-Western one. Protests were sparked in part by then President Viktor Yanukovych’s rejection of a pending trade treaty with the European Union and his embrace of more aid from Russia. You can add corruption to the list of grievance.
The deal that Yanukovych rejected would have opened up Ukraine to greater trade and investment from the EU, but it would have also required Yanukovych to fight corruption and make democratic reforms. Instead, he pivoted and made a deal with Putin. Russia lent Ukraine $15 billion. It’s giving a big discount on the price of natural gas that the country relies on for most of its energy. And probably didn’t require any reforms like tackling corruption. Protesters claimed that the deal made Ukraine so deeply indebted to Russia that it will never get out of Moscow’s orbit.
Yanukovych fled to Russia and the new government in Kiev was pro-Western and anti-Russian to the core.
Russia claims the U.S. is behind toppling the regime. Details are murky but it is clear that Washington backed the coup (leaked phone records). Who knows but I wouldn’t be surprised. Both governments are playing games. Nobody will admit it publicly. Under the former pro-Russian leader there was talk of bringing back Ukraine under Russia.
For Putin the time to act against Ukraine arrived. Russia took Crimea from Ukraine. Easy target considering there’s a Russian naval base and the region is mostly Russian. Most of them wanted out of Ukraine. Then Russia supported Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine which led the country toward civil war. Putin said that if the government cracked down on the separatists he would invade. And he raised the price of natural gas, of course.
What does Russia want?
Russia wants a ban on Ukraine’s future membership to NATO. Russia wants the Western alliance to pull back its forces to where they were in 1997, before eastern European members joined.
Of course it won’t happen. These are sovereign nations. There’s also a game being played. Russia knows that such demands won’t be met and might give them a pretext to invade.
Also if you peel the onion. There are other motives at work.
Throughout history Russia benefited from big open spaces. Owning Ukraine provides a security buffer in case of invasion. Napoleonic France, imperial Germany, and Nazi Germany all crossed to strike at Russia itself.
Putin wants to stem his country’s decline in global influence: Moscow’s leverage in places like Ukraine is one way to preserve that influence. Putin wants to bring Russia’s former glory back.
But there are other reasons why Ukraine is of deep interest to Russia — reasons that have more to do with history, faith, economics and culture.
Yes Ukraine is a sovereign country…but it’s more like an estranged family member. They might not see eye to eye but share the same blood. Those ties date back to before the Soviet Union and even before the days of the Russian empire that began in the 18th century. Ukraine has a strong Russian heritage. It’s been part of Russia in the past. They share a special relationship. They share the Russian language. Russian media is omnipresent. And there’s also deep economic ties. Russia still holds influence over the country.
Despite that, Ukraine increasingly sees itself as part of the West. You could split the country. The Western parts of Ukraine, especially the ones that border Poland, are the most vocal against Russian aggression (there’s a lot of history behind why (i.e. famine, Chernobyl). Parts of the East are more sympathetic to Russia.
Putin wants Ukraine to fail becoming a thriving democracy because it will support his claim that Western values are unworkable in Orthodox, Slavic Russia. If the Ukraine social engineering experiment succeeds, and the country modernizes, it might become an attractive model for Russians who live on the other side of the border.
Putin benefits from the aggressor. He controls the scope of attack and timetable should there be an attack. And Ukraine matters more to him than any NATO country.
Ukraine in NATO?
Not anytime soon. This risk of war with Russia is too great. This is a blow to Ukraine’s reformers who have even written their aspiration to enter NATO into their constitution.
The same goes for Georgia. But NATO would inherit another open conflict.
Solutions
In an ideal world Ukraine should have the freedom to decide on its own if it wants to join NATO and the EU without external influence. But the world we live in is not ideal, it’s real.
Avoiding armed conflict through constructive diplomacy is always preferable. Ending the stand-off without bloodshed is the goal. There’s still room for diplomacy and both countries need to maintain dialogue. They need to ease tension. If they don’t talk the risk of miscalculation is growing.
Because the West is unlikely to meet Russia’s extravagant demands, a real war is now a distinct possibility, which would have far-reaching consequences for everyone involved, especially Ukraine’s citizens.
They have had similar situations in the past. The U.S. and the Soviet Union came close to nuclear war on two occasions, The 1963 Cuban Missile Crisis and the 1983 war games come to mind when the U.S. and the Soviet Union came close to nuclear war.
Meanwhile you have to raise the cost of the invasion. Make it so unattractive to invade Ukraine. Make sure you put Moscow in a weaker strategic position. If Russia invades the responde the U.S. and the rest of the world needs to be robust. Do not be ambiguous. Make it clear what the consequences are.
If Ukraine looks weak, Russia will take it. I doubt Russia’s menacing of Ukraine will induce NATO to retreat. It will have the opposite effect. Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine has created a chance to enhance the security of Europe. It will reinforce current NATO members. Make Finland and Sweden NATO members (both neutral during the cold war).
The West can apply the most severe sanctions they can, like they have done to Iran. Take aim at the country’s economy. Measures against the top Russia officials, Putin and Mishustin, banks and important industries. You would be isolating Russia from the world. Putin hates sanctions.
Russia says his country is threatened. It is not. NATO is a defensive alliance. Russia can be an empire or a democracy, but it cannot be both. If Russia was a democracy it might have worked with Ukraine.
The optimist in me sees an opportunity. The crisis could help stop the long decay of relations between Russia and the West. A chance to reset and rebuild.
However it plays out, the region will remain unstable for the foreseeable future.
I saw her name float around over the last couple weeks, not making much of it. Who cares? Why are we even talking about this? And then it was trending on WSJ.com; Hillary Clinton’s 2024 Election Comeback. Oh boy. So there’s something to it. But really? How did we get to that? How unpopular is Joe Biden and Democratic? Clinton already lost two elections (in all fairness Joe Biden lost twice before becoming President)? I just don’t get why she’s the solution to the country’s problem. Yes she’s qualified for the job, but she’s not what we heal the United-States.
I don’t want to rehash everything but her and Bill have too many bodies in the closet. She’s a symbol of the establishment (elite, out of the touch…) She’s at the center of so many conspiracy theories and scandals. Like I said, I think she is qualified to be President in terms of knowledge and experience. You could say the same about Joe Biden and look at how that’s going. Hillary should have won in 2016. But that’s over and she’s not the future. Think about this. How are you going to get some red blooded right wing guy to vote for Hillary? It will never happen.
The country is deeply polarized and she’s not the person to fix that. Maybe what they are doing is the old political trick of putting a trial balloon out there and getting a feeler. Maybe there’s nothing to it. But come on, of course she is thinking about it. She can’t get over 2016.
How would Clinton go on about that? She would challenge Joe Biden? What about Kamala Harris? Kamala Harris is not the future of the Democratic Party. She doesn’t click, doesn’t connect and is unpopular.
President Biden’s low approval rating, doubts over his capacity to run for re-election at 82 have created a leadership vacuum in the party, which Clinton could fill. If Democrats lose control of Congress in 2022, Clinton can use the party’s loss as a basis to run for president again.
Midterm 2022 elections are not looking good for the Democrats. Republicans have their flaws and issues. I’m not going to get into that. But the Democrats look so easy to beat. It’s like they want to get crushed.
I anticipate Republicans control of both chambers of Congress. The Democrats and the White House are disorganized. Democrats need to move away from far-left positions that isolate key segments of the electorate. Hyperpolarization is dangerous and makes the country ungovernable (that goes for both sides).
I hope there is still enough civic responsibility — not everywhere, but enough — that the political class feels that the current toxic political climate, which leads to nowhere and is dangerous, is an indulgence that the U.S. simply could not afford for a long time.
I’m not saying a Democrat candidate needs to flip a Republican or vice versa. That’s not what I’m saying. But politicians need to get off Facebook and start talking to each other face to face and respect each other. First, focus on what they have in common. They all want the same thing. Better education, a better economy, jobs, less crime, better health etc… Then start getting stuff done. Civic-minded Americans politicians need to create a broad national unity coalition whose main mission is to make the basic functions of government work again and safeguard the integrity of American democracy.
Being President loses a lot of its power when you don’t have a Congress that will get things done. The next President needs to be somebody that can close the divide. Somebody that can talk to red and blue states. Somebody that can build a bridge between the left and the right. The President needs to be a leader for all Americans.
Hillary 2024? I don’t buy it. I’m going with a wild prediction here: Joe Biden with a Republican running mate for Vice-President. Or two new candidates (not Trump or Biden). Fresh blood. Fresh ideas. A fresh conversation.
Brian Langis 