I’m no foreign policy expert. So the opinion below is just my 2 cent and is probably worth as much.
As I am writing this, the White House is taking every step possible to avoid a direct Biden-Putin encounter at G-20 (link). I’m not just talking about a scheduled meeting here. It means avoiding any contact like potential hallway run-in.
I’m not suggesting they should take a photo, smile, and shake hands. But when you are on the brink of a nuclear war, maybe a side chat wouldn’t hurt?
These are two nations with a lot of problems on the table. Russia is constantly reiterating the nuclear threat. Part of the problem, leading up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is the lack of communication between both countries. There’s a lot of misunderstanding that I feel could be solved by communicating. For example Russia says NATO expansion is a threat. Then US/NATO says countries voluntarily apply because they see Russia as a threat.
The main reason why they should talk is to bring the temperature down a couple of notches. Diffuse some of the tension. Do you really want to start a nuclear war because of a misunderstanding?.
What’s the point of the G20 meetings if you are not going to talk? Isn’t the value of these summits the meeting with leaders and figuring things out? Improving relations? Addressing problems? Finding common ground? Finding a way forward? Negotiate?
Meeting with rivals and enemies is not going to flip them into friends. The US and Russia are not going to see eye to eye on many things. The meeting might not solve anything. But if they can sit down and diffuse some of the tension, that’s progress and maybe out of that a way to move forward.
During the Cuban Missile Crisis, President Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev established a “hotline”. They communicated. The Russians had nuclear missiles in Cuba pointing at the US. The US had nuclear missiles in Turkey pointing at Russia. They came to an agreement that each side would remove their missiles. They remained enemies and the Cold War didn’t end. But at least I exist to write about it because they communicated.
We had a similar situation in the 80s. The Soviets were extremely paranoid at the time and the US under President Reagan was increasingly “assertive” of their military power. Relations between both nations were low and they didn’t communicate. The Soviets were convinced that the US would nuke them. The US thought that was insane. A misunderstanding almost sparked a nuclear war. We know that because the US/UK had a source deep inside the KGB that said that the Soviets seriously thought the US were prepping for a nuclear war and the US was like “really?” President Reagan, in March 1984, asked Arthur Hartman, his ambassador to the Soviet Union, “Do you think Soviet leaders really fear us, or is all the huffing and puffing just part of their propaganda?” Robert Gates, then the CIA’s deputy director for intelligence, said “we may have been at the brink of nuclear war and not even known it.” Because of that double agent, the US backed down from over-aggressive posturing. Soon after this near-crisis, Soviet Leader Andropov died and in 1985 Reagan met with Mikhail Gorbachev. There are many books and articles on the episode.
I’m sure a little communication would have helped with the nuclear war “misunderstanding”. During times of crisis, channels of communication are important. If the two rivals actually talked they would have a better feel of each other’s position. The same goes for China. I bet it’s even more complicated because of the massive cultural differences. It’s obvious that China isn’t too happy with the way things are going in Ukraine. The US can use that to drive a wedge between China and Russia. They should use communication to build something constructive.
I hear a lot of discussion around “What is the right response from the West if Putin does detonate some sort of nuclear weapon?” The right response is why does it have to get to that?
As for the nuclear threat, I think the chances are low that it will happen. But even if the chances are low, you have to take it very seriously. Putin using the nuclear threat is the worst thing he could have done. First the Russian people are not going to go down in flames with him. There’s no loyalty here. He will also lose the little support left he has from India and China.
When we are talking about the nuclear threat, we are not talking about what Putin is doing in Ukraine. Putin is using pure nuclear blackmail. There can’t be a compromise based on him not setting off a nuclear weapon if we hand over Ukraine.
I don’t have the solutions. But I’m confident that if the US and Russia start talking, we might avoid a nuclear war.
Part I – Thoughts on the Ukraine Crisis (pre-war)
Brian Langis 