Following the last podcast we did together back in October, right before the marijuana legalization in Canada, Eric Schleien took the time to publish a transcript of the podcast. Just in case you didn’t catch my accent, or you are the more visual type, you can read the entire thing here on Seeking Alpha: Getting Into The Weeds On Marijuana Stocks (Transcript) You can also catch the podcast here and my related article on SA here.
Here’s a sample:
ERIC: Regarding actual publicly traded marijuana stocks, are there any of them that you see as viable investments or is it all equivalent to gambling in your view?
BRIAN: Just to make sure that the listeners understand, I’m not endorsing any of these companies, investors beware, they are at sky-high levels and I wouldn’t even touch them.
ERIC: can you really can you really do a proper valuation on these things or do you really have to approach it more like a venture capitalist?
BRIAN: Oh, totally like a VC, we barely know anything honestly. I called Canopy Growth last week to prepare for the podcast… I’m like… hey, what’s going to happen when Canada legalizes marijuana… and they don’t know. Canopy Growth is the most legit company here, let’s talk about them. Canopy Growth had a head start over everybody else. They used to be North Street. It’s a nice little story. Just an hour south of Ottawa is a town called Smiths Falls. Smith Falls is an old school industrial town where they used to do manufacturing. A lot of these jobs are gone and about 10 years ago there was a Hershey chocolate factory that closed down and that was a major part of the town and it hurt the town a lot. The company which is now renamed Canopy Growth bought it. They bought the chocolate factory and it into the biggest marijuana company in the world. So, good for them, Canopy Growth is first class. These guys are ahead of the game, they are in a lot of fields, they’re the biggest, they have access to capital, there produce weed, they have a lot of it, they’re in the medical sector, they are all over the world. I think they’re very well managed. This company is the real deal. I’m telling you all these things that are all positive, but the thing is the market valuation of the business. The key question is how much are you willing to pay for it? So, let’s work some numbers here. The company has exposure to what they believe to be a $9 billion dollar market and they say it’s going to take a couple years for the legal space to crush the black market space. If you take all the big marijuana companies in Canada we have a total market cap of $60 billion with a potential of a $9 billion industry. So, you just see how out of whack it is right? So Canopy Growth will just have a portion of that maybe you know a good size of it but how so where is the opportunity so they’re looking at international, they’re not just looking at Canada because obviously Canada it’s just a drop in the bucket. We’re such a small country. Yes, we consume weed but as a percentage of international consumption, we’re nothing. So, they’re really looking at the international opportunities and they’re really looking at the United States when it becomes legal. There’s also Aurora Cannabis (ACB) which is the second biggest in Canada with a market cap of 11 billion. These guys are using their overvalued, inflated, sky-high shares to make acquisitions. Their stock is currency. So, they’re buying everybody and everything in fields such as: medical research, distribution, and dry cannabis retail. They’re trying to have a hand in everything and Aurora Cannabis is more flashy and aggressive than Canopy Growth. Another producer that’s interesting is Aphria (APHA). The company is smaller, and these guys play a different game. They don’t want to be like the Canopy or Aurora. Instead, these guys are only focusing on one thing and that’s being the low-cost producer. So, they’re focusing a lot on costs. They are doing that by focusing on the greenhouse which currently costs them $55/sqft. They keep their costs lower by being outside where they have natural light which lowers electricity bills compared to the people growing inside. Also by being and also by being outside, you’re using a lot less fertilizer. So, less electricity, more light, and less fertilizer, which equates to cheaper costs. So, that’s their game. I think they know that’s going to be important especially for the dry cannabis so they’re sticking with that approach. Another small company is Hexo (OTCPK:HYYDF) which is based in Quebec. What makes them different is that they’re the exclusive weed seller for the government of Quebec. When the government of Quebec opens their stores, they’re going to be the exclusive provider. So, that’s really good and their market valuations are high but not as crazy as the other guys. And they just graduated from the venture to the big TSX. There’s also Tilray (TLRY). Have you heard of them?
ERIC: Of course