Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton

Just to be clear. I’m not a Democrat or a Republican. I’m not even American so I can’t vote. But I did live in the U.S. for many years. I have many friends in the U.S. I invest in U.S. companies. I visit the country occasionally and I follow what’s happening in the country very closely. So I care about this. America has given people so many opportunities. It is not perfect but I believe it is a force for good in the world. A healthy strong America is better for the world.

If you are American,  you are probably sick and tired of both candidates and politics in general. It’s kind of frustrating that this is the best two candidates that America has to offer. But you have to make a choice. (And why, in 2016, are there still only two main political parties? But that’s a topic for another day). You are stuck between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. I’ve look at third party options and they are not credible. Where do you vote if you are a moderate? Where are the normal candidates at?

Donald Trump is polling good numbers and as crazy as it sound it could become President. It doesn’t matter what he does or say, who he offends, how many women he sexually assaulted, or that he’s not qualified for the job, 40-45% of the population will vote for him. Facts don’t matter to Trump supporters, despite clear evidence that he had misrepresented or falsified key issues throughout the campaign. To understand why people will vote for Donald Trump, you need to put yourself in their shoes. I think it’s an exercise that more people should do. I’m not going to pretend that I understand what it is to be a Trump supporter, because I don’t, but I can try to understand their point of view. Despite all the dreadful things that Donald Trump said and did, he’s still polling around 40%. So that’s means there is a large segment of the population that support his views. People will vote for Donald Trump because they believe he will make their lives better. Most of Trump supporters are, and I’m generalizing 1)white male 2)less educated 3)and have lower income. In that ~40% you also have the republicans that only vote republicans and the Christian vote (it’s really an anti-abortion vote). A lot of people also hates Hillary Clinton. Even though stats have shown that the U.S.A. is doing well (GDP up, unemployment below 5%, stock market at record high etc…) they feel they “lost” they country. America has prospered a lot in the last few decades and even if it doesn’t feel like it, most Americans are better off than they were. However some people were left behind and as a result have fallen through the cracks of society. They will vote for Donald Trump because the political establishment of the last few decades has failed them, and Hillary Clinton is part of the “establishment” and Donald Trump is not.

Trump is not ready to assume the responsibilities that comes with being President of the U.S. He doesn’t have the knowledge, the experience, and the temperament to be President. The idea the he alone can “fix it” is absurd. He’s textbook egomaniac. He’s tapping into popular resentments and insecurities. I don’t think he has any idea what he got himself into. Getting things done in politics wasn’t suppose to be easy. When the founding fathers created the system, it was intentionally set up to have gridlock. Today we see it as a frustrating flaw, but the idea is that if you are going to change something you need a good majority. Donald Trump has trampled all over the unwritten rules of American democracy, violating his party and his country. He’s running the campaign like it’s so kind of reality TV show. It creates an ambiguity about how serious he is, and how seriously his audience needs to take him. There are too many signs that he’s unfit to be head of state. We never know what Trump will say next and that’s a huge problem. It represents massive uncertainty, and uncertainty can cause social unrest.

Now Hillary Clinton is not perfect. She has a long history in American politics. She represents the “establishment”. Hillary is bought and sold. She’s not credible and most American distrust her, with reason. She will say the scripted things to get votes.  If she was running against a more competent opponent she would probably lose. Look how hard it was to beat Bernie Sanders. Trump has pissed off every voting class possible except the angry broke white men. Trump can’t get the women vote, the Hispanic vote, the black vote, the Muslim vote, the educated vote, and he stills has a chance to beat Hillary.

Despite all of that, Hillary Clinton should be the next President of United-States. This is more than “she’s the lesser of the two evils.” She’s the most qualified and the most prepared. You are not going to like her. She doesn’t have the charisma of Obama or he husband. She’s not warm. You have put up with a manufactured smile and her boring speeches. But what really matters? You need the person to get the job done. When it comes to elections, instead of “hiring” the right person, you are voting for the right person. But when it comes to voting, people forgets the importance of the resume and it becomes a popularity contest. When it’s a popularity contest, people will say or do whatever is necessary to get votes and that’s when things get out of whack. You need to charm people. Charisma and great speeches is what got Obama elected twice despite his lack of experience and a tough first term. Hillary Clinton has a solid resume but struggle to be popular. Yes she has many flaws but I want the best person for the job, not the coolest. She knows the game better than anybody. She will work with legislators, even the ones that are determined to thwart her. That means less gridlock and getting things done. It’s not going to take her six months to get up to speed with the job. Plus Bill Clinton will be in the White House and I don’t think he’s there to choose the china set. Remember the 90s? I really think that if you vote for her, you will not regret your decision and America will be better off in four years.

Another thing that I look for when I vote is their potential cabinet, the people who surrounds and advice the President. Let’s face it, the President is not the real decision maker. He’s just there for PR.  What really matters is who is running Defence? Education? Treasury? Secretary of State? Even if Trump wins it won’t be the end of the world because he won’t do anything. His cabinet will tell him what to do and Congress or the Supreme Court will probably not pass any of his crazy idea. Hillary will be better surrounded. If she can keep Joe Biden or John Kerry that would be great. Trump will listen to Rudy Giuliani and Chris Christie, that’s not good. Plus Trump has pissed off too many credible Republicans that they won’t work with him. I don’t think Trump has the personality to attract top talent.

Here are my predictions: Hillary wins.

If Mr Trump loses, Mrs Clinton will begin her presidency with tens of millions of people believing that she ought to be in jail. Perhaps he will lose so comprehensively that he takes the Republican majorities in both chambers down with him. That would afford Mrs Clinton at least two years, before the next mid-term elections, during which she might push through an immigration reform, increase spending on infrastructure and change the balance on the Supreme Court. These would be big achievements, but something close to 40% of voters would feel they were being steamrollered by a hostile government. Then the Democrats will lose the mid-term election. Politics could become yet more polarized.

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