if history repeats itself… (post Facebook IPO predictions)

Nice reprint from Chris Dixon on Facebook. I just stumble on that piece but he actually wrote it back in January, before the Facebook IPO. He made some nice logical predictions. I wonder up to what extension the Facebook IPO disaster would have affected his prediction. Didn’t that help that’s for sure. Chris is Co-founder/CEO of Hunch (acquired by eBay). Follow him at cdixon.org Original here.

If history repeats itself, the Facebook IPO will mean:

- a bunch of second-tier social media companies go public to satisfy
investor demand for “social media allocations”
http://cdixon.org/2011/06/16/allocation-investing-and-the-social-premium/
(facebook’s reportedly small float of 5b will make this more likely)

- high private valuations for social media companies will last at
least another year

- the press will write thousands of breathless stories that make it
seem like the future of western culture depends on new facebook
revenue streams (see coverage of google’s business model post-IPO)

- facebook will continue to do small talent acquisitions until they
have their “Google Video” moment and then like all mature tech
companies will start acquiring real businesses for 1b+ valuations. see
last paragraph of
http://cdixon.org/2011/12/10/three-types-of-acquisitions/

- facebook will – in the eyes of the press – go from darling to “evil”
over the next 5 years. (again, see google coverage).

- the next 1-2 years will mark the end of this “patternson cycle” (see
http://www.quora.com/What-are-the-underlying-reasons-for-The-Patterson-Cycle-…
after that, really interesting innovation will start gestating for
the next cycle.

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